UN security council holds second poll to select next secretary-general

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The UN’s most powerful body, the Security Council, meets Friday to hold another straw poll to gauge the popularity of a growing field of contenders to lead the embattled organisation.

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Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan was the front-runner after last month’s first informal vote, in which the council’s 15 members, including the five with veto power, pass judgment in secret on the candidates.

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Argentina’s Rafael Grossi — the current head of the UN nuclear watchdog — is also a candidate along with Chile’s Michelle Bachelet, Ecuador’s Maria Fernanda Espinosa, Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, Uganda’s Olara Otunnu and Senegal’s Macky Sall.

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After the first round concluded, Ecuador’s Ivonne A-Baki threw her hat into the race to succeed Antonio Guterres, who will complete his second five-year term on December 31, 2026.

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“While the first straw poll set the scene for the Secretary-General race, the second may give us some direction about where it is headed,” said the International Crisis Group’s Daniel Forti.

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“Diplomats expect fluctuations in the vote distribution compared to the July poll. Most will be watching to see whether the early front-runners consolidate their support or slip in the standings.

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“It is unlikely that any candidate will emerge from (Friday’s) poll with a decisive lead.”

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Forti said the veto-wielding nations — Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States — might wait until later to express their preferences, while new contenders could emerge.

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Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, said Thursday he could not rule out that possibility.

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“If, for example — I’m speculating now — if there is a deadlock on any of the candidates we are seeing today, if nobody… flies, then I think that we may see other candidates as well,” Nebenzia said.

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Even if a candidate earns the required nine votes from the 15 available in the Security Council, they must also avoid a veto by the five major powers, which are deeply divided.

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Once a candidate clears those bars, their name will go to the General Assembly of all UN members for confirmation.

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The Security Council straw poll was devised in the early 1980s in an attempt to break a deadlock between two candidates shut down by vetoes.

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The informal mechanism has persisted, in various forms, despite criticism from countries opposed to the opaque process.

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“There is a good chance that some nominees realise after (Friday’s) vote that their campaigns have reached the end of the road,” Forti added.

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Each member state must anonymously assign each candidate one of three labels: “encourage,” “discourage,” or “no opinion.”

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That would give those with no support the opportunity to withdraw — though they are not obliged.

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In the first rounds of the process expected to take several weeks, all ballots are the same colour.

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But after an unspecified number of votes, the ballots of the five permanent members will become a different colour from those of the elected members, making it possible to identify potential vetoes, without knowing which country blackballed any given candidate.

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It is tradition that the UN’s top job should rotate between different regions.

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Under that premise, the role should go to a candidate from Latin America this time. There are many candidates from the region, though Sall and Otunnu hail from Africa.

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AFP

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