Situation at Lake Chad Reaches Critical Juncture, According to UN Refugee Agency

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees has sounded the alarm over the deteriorating security situation across the Lake Chad Basin, cautioning that the escalating violence and displacement threaten to undermine the region's fragile stability, which has been painstakingly built over the years.

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At a press briefing in Geneva on Friday, Andrew Wyllie, the UNHCR Deputy Director for the West and Central Africa Bureau, painted a grim picture of the humanitarian situation, which has taken a significant turn for the worse across the Lake Chad Basin, encompassing parts of Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria.

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The UNHCR has reported that a staggering 3.5 million people are currently forcibly displaced across the basin, while a further 8.2 million individuals are in dire need of humanitarian assistance, underscoring the immense scale of the crisis.

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According to the agency, security incidents have surged by a whopping 80 per cent between January 2024 and April 2026, a trend that is deeply troubling and suggests a sharp escalation of the conflict.

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Between September 2025 and May 2026, the region witnessed nearly 1,800 security incidents and more than 5,700 fatalities, including attacks on civilians, killings, kidnappings, explosions, clashes between armed groups, and raids on villages, highlighting the brutal nature of the conflict.

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The UNHCR has identified Borno State in northeastern Nigeria as the epicentre of the crisis, where repeated attacks by non-state armed groups, military operations, and growing insecurity along roads and displacement routes continue to force families from their homes, while also limiting humanitarian access.

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The effects of the conflict have spread beyond the North-East, with insecurity and displacement increasingly affecting the North-West and parts of the Middle Belt, a development that is causing concern among humanitarian agencies.

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Since January 2026, more than 77,500 people have been displaced across the four countries, including over 16,000 refugees who fled attacks in northeastern Nigeria to Niger’s Diffa region, where humanitarian partners are providing emergency assistance to those in need.

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The UNHCR has warned that violence is increasingly crossing national borders, with attacks in one country triggering displacement in neighbouring states, a phenomenon that is exacerbating the regional crisis.

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Persistent attacks continue to fuel insecurity in Cameroon’s Far North, while recurrent attacks and military operations in Chad’s Lac Province have displaced about 60,000 people, prompting authorities to declare a state of emergency in May.

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The agency has expressed concern that civilians are bearing the greatest burden of the conflict, with recent protection monitoring revealing that one in five households no longer feels safe in its own community, a stark indicator of the fear and insecurity that pervades the region.

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Women and girls, in particular, face increasing risks of violence, while specialised protection services remain critically overstretched, leaving them vulnerable to exploitation and abuse.

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The UNHCR has reported that the number of people who know survivors of violence has risen to 27 per cent in 2026 from 19 per cent in 2025, reflecting a worsening protection environment despite widespread underreporting of incidents.

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Children have also been severely affected, with about half of those living in the hardest-hit areas out of school, a figure that exceeds 78 per cent in Chad’s Lac Province, highlighting the devastating impact of the conflict on education.

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The agency has further reported that one in four people surveyed said there were separated or unaccompanied children in their communities, rising to one in three in Cameroon’s Far North, a trend that is deeply troubling and requires urgent attention.

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Andrew Wyllie commended governments across the region for keeping their borders open to people fleeing violence and for supporting displaced communities, a gesture that has been crucial in providing relief to those in need.

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Wyllie stated that the UNHCR is working with governments across all four countries to assist people fleeing violence, monitor risks, support new arrivals, and ensure families can access documentation, assistance, and, where conditions allow, pathways to return, reintegration, and recovery.

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The agency, however, warned that humanitarian operations are struggling to match the scale of growing needs, a challenge that requires urgent attention and support from the international community.

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Wyllie said that the UNHCR and partners urgently need $29 million through December 2026 to sustain operations, maintain critical protection and assistance in high-risk areas, and support government-led regional stabilisation efforts.

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He cautioned that without timely and flexible support, protection gaps will widen, displacement will continue to spread across borders, and the risk of a more entrenched regional crisis will increase, a scenario that is deeply concerning and must be averted.

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Wyllie concluded that the trajectory of the crisis remains deeply concerning, but it is still reversible with sustained support now, a message that underscores the need for urgent and collective action to address the humanitarian emergency in the Lake Chad Basin.