Revenue from crude oil exports plummeted by $5.31 billion, according to a recent report

Nigeria's crude oil export earnings plummeted by $5.31bn in 2025, a stark reflection of the country's dwindling oil receipts amidst a broader improvement in its external trade position, with data from the Central Bank of Nigeria's Balance of Payments report revealing a decline from $36.85bn in 2024 to $31.54bn in 2025.

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This decline represents a 14.41 per cent year-on-year drop, and it occurred despite the country recording a current account surplus of $14.04bn in 2025, which, although lower than the $19.03bn posted in 2024, was significantly higher than the $6.42bn recorded in 2023.

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The contraction in crude oil earnings was a major factor behind the moderation in the current account surplus during the period under review, with the report stating that provisional BOP statistics for 2025 showed a current account surplus of $14.04bn, lower than the previous year's $19.03bn, partly due to reduced crude oil exports.

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Notably, the fall in earnings from crude oil exports occurred despite an increase in oil production in 2025, with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission's official production figures indicating that the country produced 530.41 million barrels of crude oil between January and December 2025.

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In comparison, the country produced 408.68 million barrels of crude oil in 2024, marking a higher oil production in 2025, although the data showed that crude oil production fell below Nigeria's OPEC quota in nine months of the year, meeting or slightly exceeding the target only in January, June, and July.

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The 2025 budget had planned for the production of at least 2.1 million barrels of oil per day, amounting to 766.5 million barrels annually, but the country struggled to pump 599.64 million barrels of oil, comprising 530.41 million barrels of crude and 69.23 million barrels of condensate, resulting in a shortfall of 166.86 million barrels from the production target.

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While crude oil prices helped support revenue, further analysis indicated that total oil and gas exports improved marginally, but the crude oil component continued to weaken, suggesting structural shifts in Nigeria's hydrocarbon export mix, with exports of crude oil, gas, and refined petroleum products rising slightly from $45.51bn in 2024 to $48.17bn in 2025.

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This increase was driven largely by gas exports, which jumped from $8.66bn in 2024 to $10.51bn in 2025, representing a 21.36 per cent rise, and newly recorded refined petroleum exports, which stood at $6.13bn in 2025, reflecting growing domestic refining capacity.

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The emergence of refined petroleum exports was linked to the operations of the Dangote Refinery, contributing to a shift in Nigeria's trade structure, although crude oil remained the dominant export component, and its decline had a pronounced impact on overall external earnings.

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The country's external sector faced additional pressures from rising import bills and increased outflows in other components of the current account, with non-oil imports rising from $25.74bn in 2024 to $29.24bn in 2025, marking a 13.60 per cent increase.

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Net outflows in the services account widened from $13.36bn to $14.58bn, while net outflows in the primary income account surged by 60.88 per cent to $9.09bn, driven by higher dividend and interest payments to foreign investors, with increased payments for transport, travel, insurance, and investment income contributing to the widening deficits.

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However, the goods account remained resilient, recording a surplus of $14.51bn in 2025 compared to $13.17bn in 2024, supported by higher gas exports and the introduction of refined petroleum exports, while the availability of locally refined petroleum products led to a reduction in fuel imports.

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Refined petroleum product imports dropped from $14.06bn in 2024 to $10.00bn in 2025, and crude oil imports of $3.74bn were recorded during the year, reflecting purchases by the Dangote Refinery as part of its operational requirements.

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Overall, the country's balance of payments recorded a surplus of $4.23bn in 2025, down from $6.83bn in 2024, while external reserves rose to $45.75bn at the end of the year, indicating improved reserve accumulation despite underlying pressures.

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State governments have called for a forensic audit of Nigeria's crude oil-backed borrowing arrangements, warning that opaque crude-for-loan and swap deals may be undermining inflows into the Federation Account, with the commissioners of finance examining the implications of the Petroleum Industry Act and its impact on the management of oil and gas revenues.

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A communiqué from the state governments noted that issues surrounding the transfer of joint venture assets to NNPC Limited, management fees, production sharing contract profit oil administration, and the Frontier Exploration Fund had raised serious concerns among stakeholders, with the communiqué stating that these developments had materially reduced inflows into the Federation Account and weakened oversight.

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The state governments stressed the importance of transparency, accountability, and stronger oversight mechanisms in the management of public finances, acknowledging that the Petroleum Industry Act has created opportunities for improved governance in the petroleum sector.