Oil import FX demand jumps 115% despite local production

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Nigeria’s foreign exchange demand for oil-sector imports surged by 114.91 per cent in 2025, highlighting the country’s continued reliance on imported petroleum products and related inputs.

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This was disclosed in the recently released Central Bank of Nigeria’s 2025 Annual Report and Statement of Accounts, which showed that foreign exchange utilised for oil sector imports rose to $4.86bn, compared with about $2.26bn recorded in 2024.

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The report indicated that petroleum-related imports remained the second-largest consumer of foreign exchange among visible imports, accounting for 25.91 per cent of the total import-related FX utilisation during the year. This, however, is despite the local production and refining of crude to get petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, etc.

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According to the apex bank, aggregate foreign exchange utilisation across the economy expanded significantly in 2025, driven largely by increased demand for invisible imports and higher import-related transactions.

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The report stated, “Aggregate utilisation of foreign exchange by economic sectors rose, driven by higher invisible imports. Foreign exchange utilisation increased by 59.36 per cent to $42.83bn, from $26.88bn in 2024.”

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The CBN explained that visible imports accounted for $18.76bn, representing 43.80 per cent of the total foreign exchange utilised during the year, compared with $15.62bn recorded in 2024.

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It added that industrial imports remained the largest consumer of foreign exchange among visible imports, followed closely by the oil sector.

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The report stated, “A disaggregation showed that $18.76bn (43.80 per cent) of the total foreign exchange was utilised for visible imports, relative to $15.62bn in 2024. Of the foreign exchange utilised in total visible imports, industrial sector imports were dominant at 42.11 per cent.

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“This was followed by the oil sector (25.91 per cent), manufactured products (15.64 per cent), food products (10.51 per cent), transport sector (3.78 per cent), mineral sector (1.04 per cent), and agricultural sector (1.00 per cent).”

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Providing further breakdown, the apex bank said petroleum imports recorded the sharpest increase among the major import categories.

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According to the report, “A further analysis showed that the amount utilised for oil sector import rose by 114.91 per cent to $4.86bn. Utilisation for manufactured products rose by 61.70 per cent to $2.93bn, while the transport sector increased by 52.17 per cent to $0.71bn, and the agricultural sector by 20.71 per cent to $0.19 billion.”

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The CBN, however, noted that foreign exchange utilisation declined in some key sectors despite the overall increase. It stated, “However, the amount utilised for the industrial sector decreased by 0.76 per cent to $7.90bn, while utilisation for food products and minerals decreased by 22.01 and 54.85 per cent, to $1.97bn and $0.19bn, respectively, relative to the levels in 2024.”

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The report also revealed that foreign exchange utilisation for invisible transactions exceeded that of visible imports during the year, reflecting increased demand for financial services, travel and other offshore obligations.

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According to the CBN, “Foreign exchange utilisation for invisible transactions at $24.07bn or 56.20 per cent of the total, increased by 113.83 per cent, compared with $11.26bn in 2024.”

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The bank added that financial services dominated invisible imports. It stated, “The amount utilised for financial and transport services rose by 125.25 and 41.46 per cent to $22.18bn and $0.57bn, respectively. Furthermore, the amount utilised for tourism and travel-related services stood at $3.72bn, business services at $1.15bn, and health-related and social services at $0.03bn.”

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The report further noted that utilisation for communication, education and other services declined during the review period. It stated, “However, utilisation for communication services declined by 62.82 per cent to $0.70bn. Education declined by 18.39 per cent to $0.53bn, and other services by 40.23 per cent to $0.01bn.”

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On the composition of invisible imports, the apex bank said, “In terms of share, financial services constituted 92.12 per cent of the total invisible import. This was followed by business services (4.77 per cent), transport services (2.39 per cent), communication services (0.29 per cent), educational services (0.22 per cent), and other services accounted for the balance.”

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The increase in foreign exchange utilised for oil sector imports comes at a time Nigeria has significantly expanded its domestic refining capacity. The 700,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Petroleum Refinery has continued to ramp up production.

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In 2025, petrol importation remained the dominant source of fuel consumed in Nigeria, accounting for 62.47 per cent of the country’s total Premium Motor Spirit consumption.

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According to the factsheet on the state of the midstream and downstream petroleum sector, total national petrol consumption by Nigerians stood at approximately 18.97 billion litres in 2025, with oil marketing companies accounting for 11.85 billion litres through imports, highlighting the market’s continued dependence on foreign supply.

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This means that nearly two-thirds of petrol consumed by Nigerians in 2025 was sourced from imports, while domestic refineries contributed about 7.54 billion litres, representing 37.53 per cent of total consumption.

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But this has changed in the first six months of 2026, with the Dangote Petroleum Refinery maintaining its position as Nigeria’s dominant supplier of Premium Motor Spirit, accounting for the bulk of domestic supply as petrol importation fell by 65.7 per cent in the first six months of 2026.

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The Federal Government has repeatedly stated that domestic refining would reduce dependence on imported petroleum products, conserve scarce foreign exchange, strengthen energy security and improve the country’s balance of payments.

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However, pricing has remained the major determinant for marketers when choosing a supplier, amid growing competition between the Refinery and fuel importers. Many operators in the downstream sector shift allegiance based on cost advantage rather than source.

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Confirming the development, the National Publicity Officer of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, said marketers would naturally buy from any source offering the lowest price to stay in business.

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Ukadike explained in an interview, “In this business, pricing is everything. Marketers will always go for the most affordable option because our margins are very thin. If imported products are cheaper, we have no choice but to patronise importers. But if Dangote’s refinery offers a better price, of course, we will buy locally.”

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He added that the price gap between locally refined products and imports fluctuates depending on global oil prices, exchange rates, and government policies. “No marketer can afford sentiment when it comes to survival,” he said. “Our decision is driven by economics, not emotion.”

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Marketers have also noted that petroleum import bills extend beyond Premium Motor Spirit and include crude oil swaps, refined petroleum products, lubricants, petrochemical feedstocks, refinery equipment, catalysts, additives and other inputs required across the downstream petroleum value chain.

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Dangote also imported crude oil worth N5.73tn in 2025, comprising N1.19tn in Q1, N1.64tn in Q2, N2.40tn in Q3, and N499.75bn in Q4.

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The latest CBN figures also come amid ongoing reforms in the downstream oil sector following the full deregulation of the petrol market, the gradual decline in fuel imports and increased competition between domestic refiners and independent fuel importers.

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The CBN data indicates that while domestic refining capacity has expanded, reducing the country’s dependence on foreign exchange for petroleum imports remains a work in progress.

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