Nigeria sees 3.89% economic expansion in first quarter despite decline in crude production, according to national statistics office.

Nigeria's economy demonstrated a notable expansion, with a 3.89 per cent growth in real terms during the first quarter of 2026, despite a decline in crude oil production, driven primarily by the thriving sectors of agriculture, telecommunications, financial services, construction, and trade activities.

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The country's Gross Domestic Product exhibited a faster growth rate compared to the 3.13 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2025, as indicated by data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday, thereby extending the economy's recovery momentum amidst the non-oil sector's continued dominance.

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The National Bureau of Statistics stated that Gross Domestic Product grew by 3.89 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the first quarter of 2026, surpassing the 3.13 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2025, with the agriculture sector growing by 3.15 per cent during the quarter, a significant increase from 0.07 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2025.

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The industry sector recorded a growth rate of 3.50 per cent, up from 3.42 per cent a year earlier, while the services sector grew by 4.31 per cent, marginally lower than the 4.33 per cent recorded in the same period of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

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The services sector remained the largest component of the economy, contributing 57.73 per cent to aggregate GDP, a slight increase from 57.50 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, as revealed in the report.

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In nominal terms, aggregate GDP at basic prices rose to N110.79tn in the first quarter of 2026, a significant increase from N94.05tn in the corresponding period of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.79 per cent.

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Despite the overall improvement in economic growth, crude oil production declined during the quarter, with the nation recording an average daily oil production of 1.55 million barrels per day, lower than the daily average production of 1.62 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2025 and the fourth quarter of 2025 production volume of 1.58 mbpd.

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The oil sector, however, recorded real growth of 2.57 per cent year-on-year, higher than the 1.87 per cent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2025, although its contribution to total real GDP declined marginally to 3.92 per cent from 3.97 per cent a year earlier.

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The non-oil sector continued to account for the bulk of economic activity, growing by 3.94 per cent in real terms during the reference quarter, driven mainly by telecommunications, crop production, trade, cement manufacturing, financial institutions, real estate, construction, and road transportation activities.

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The non-oil economy contributed 96.08 per cent to real GDP during the quarter, slightly above the 96.03 per cent recorded in the same period of 2025, as stated in the report.

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A breakdown of sectoral performance showed that agriculture contributed 23.16 per cent to real GDP, although this was slightly lower than the 23.33 per cent contribution recorded in the corresponding period of 2025, with crop production remaining the dominant agricultural activity, accounting for 66.76 per cent of the sector's nominal value.

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Manufacturing also strengthened during the period, recording real growth of 3.29 per cent, higher than both the corresponding quarter of 2025 and the preceding quarter, and accounted for 9.57 per cent of real GDP.

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The Information and Communication sector emerged as one of the strongest growth drivers, expanding by 10.98 per cent in real terms and contributing 11.31 per cent to total GDP, compared with 10.59 per cent in the first quarter of 2025.

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Similarly, the Finance and Insurance sector grew by 8.54 per cent in real terms and contributed 3.76 per cent to GDP, while the construction sector expanded by 6.38 per cent and accounted for 4.85 per cent of economic output.

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The NBS identified trade as the largest contributor to real GDP in the first quarter of 2026, accounting for 17.89 per cent of output, followed by crop production with 17.38 per cent, and real estate with 13.10 per cent.

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Telecommunications and Information Services accounted for 9.19 per cent, construction contributed 4.85 per cent, and crude petroleum and natural gas represented 3.92 per cent, as indicated in the report.

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Other sectors posting positive real growth included transportation and storage at 7.41 per cent, accommodation and food services at 4.36 per cent, arts, entertainment and recreation at 11.25 per cent, and water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation services at 10.32 per cent.

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However, the Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply sector contracted by 15.30 per cent in real terms, while the Other Services sector recorded a decline of 1.96 per cent.

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The latest GDP figures fell short of projections by the World Bank, which had expected stronger economic expansion this year despite recent adjustments to its outlook, with the bank revising Nigeria's growth forecast downward in its April 2026 Africa's Pulse report.

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The World Bank projected that Africa's largest economy would grow by 4.1 per cent in 2026 and 4.2 per cent in 2027, down from its earlier forecast of 4.4 per cent for both years, attributing the downgrade to heightened geopolitical tensions, weaker global demand, and instability in oil prices.