Nigeria risks missing China’s zero-tariff opportunity – Experts

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Nigeria risks missing the economic benefits of China’s zero-tariff policy unless it urgently boosts production capacity, improves standards and cuts trade costs, experts and stakeholders have warned.

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China has opened its vast market to products from 53 African countries by removing tariffs on all tariff lines. However, Nigeria will not automatically benefit from the new access unless it can produce enough goods that meet Chinese standards, compete on cost and move through an efficient trade system.

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Experts spoke on Wednesday at the international seminar convened by the Centre for China Studies.

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The seminar, organised in collaboration with the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China and the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, was attended by stakeholders from the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, Standards Organisation of Nigeria, World Health Organisation, Nigeria Customs Service, representatives of government, business organisations, trade and industry bodies, scholars and other stakeholders in Nigeria-China relations.

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The seminar was themed, “China’s Zero-Tariff for African Countries and its Implications for Structural Economic Transformation in Africa.”

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The Chinese policy, which took effect on May 1, grants zero-tariff treatment on all tariff lines for products from 53 African countries with diplomatic relations with China.

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Eswatini is the only African country excluded because it maintains diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

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For Nigeria to fully benefit from the zero-tariff regime, participants at the seminar summarily argued the country must urgently improve its production capacity, industrial base, standards compliance and trade facilitation systems.

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Representatives of the NIIA, Customs and the Centre for China Studies agreed that the policy presents a significant opportunity for African exporters but cautioned that preferential access to the Chinese market would mean little without the capacity to produce goods that meet international standards and can be supplied consistently.

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Speaking on behalf of the Comptroller-General of Customs, Adewale Adeniyi, the Controller, Federal Operations Unit Zone A, Gambo Aliyu, said the removal of tariffs should not be mistaken for automatic economic transformation.

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“The first point I would make is that market access is an opportunity, not an automatic economic transformation. Tariffs can be removed, but production must still occur domestically,” he said.

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He said African countries needed to connect China’s market access with domestic productive capacity.

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“If African countries do not have enough goods that meet international standards, the benefit of zero tariffs will remain largely on paper. The real task is therefore to connect China’s market access with African productive capacity,” he said.

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The Customs official listed agriculture, agro-processing, solid minerals, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, leather, textiles and light manufacturing among sectors where Nigeria could potentially expand exports to China.

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He, however, said potential would only become an economic advantage when Nigeria could guarantee reliable production, quality, competitive pricing, proper packaging, traceability and dependable delivery.

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“A Chinese buyer who needs a regular shipment every month must be able to rely on the Nigerian supplier to deliver every month, not only when conditions are favourable,” he said.

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The Customs official identified rules of origin as one of the immediate technical issues Nigerian exporters must understand if they are to take advantage of the policy.

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He explained that zero-tariff treatment did not automatically apply to every product shipped from Nigeria, particularly where goods contained imported inputs or passed through several countries.

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“Goods must satisfy the applicable origin requirements. African Customs administrations and exporters must understand these rules, apply them correctly and maintain credible records.

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“Otherwise, businesses may lose the preference or face costly disputes at the border,” he said.

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He called for stronger coordination among Customs, standards authorities, export promotion institutions, agricultural and industrial agencies, ports, logistics operators and the private sector.

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“The exporter should not be left to move from one organisation to another without a clear and coordinated process. The success of a trade preference is measured by how easily a compliant business can use it,” he said.

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He also said Nigeria needed to look beyond the export of raw commodities and use the Chinese market to promote domestic processing and manufacturing.

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“Africa cannot achieve structural transformation by simply increasing the volume of raw materials it exports.

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“If we export raw cocoa and import finished chocolate, or export raw minerals and import finished industrial products, much of the value, technology and employment remains outside the continent,” he said.

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According to him, the Chinese opportunity should encourage investment in processing, manufacturing, packaging, standards, skills and technology.

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He said the Nigeria Customs Service was already deploying reforms aimed at improving trade facilitation, including the B’Odogwu indigenous customs management system, National Single Window, One Stop Shop, Authorised Economic Operators and Advance Rulings.

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The reforms, he said, were designed to simplify processes, improve transparency and make the trading environment more predictable.

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“Zero tariff removes one cost, but it does not remove non-tariff barriers like the cost of electricity, transport, finance, port services, insurance, production inputs or regulatory compliance.

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“If these costs remain high, Nigerian products may still struggle to compete,” he said.

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The Director of the Centre for China Studies, Charles Onunaiju, said Nigeria must not regard the Chinese policy as a gift from Beijing but as an opportunity that would only yield results if the country built the capacity to exploit it.

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“Zero tariff, in my understanding, is not a gift. Whether I believe China or whatever, it’s simply an opportunity,” Onunaiju said.

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He said the major question for Nigeria and other African countries should be how to build the institutional capacity required to respond to such opportunities.

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“It depends on how we respond. In this instance, which is a sit-down of research, interrogations, the question is, how much are we in understanding and interrogating the state capacity to respond to opportunities of this sort?” he said.

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Onunaiju said African countries could not continue to appeal for fairness in international trade without developing the capacity to compete.

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“We cannot respond by apologies, by appeals, to fairness. The word itself is not fair. If you choose to appeal for fairness, you could be here for a very long time to come,” he said.

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He warned that Chinese companies could potentially establish processing operations in African countries merely to obtain preferential access to the Chinese market, without generating sufficient local value addition.

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“We could end up being Chinese businesses, coming up with a set of business, and simply process around Nigeria and export,” he said.

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He said Nigeria needed to ensure that the policy translated into local employment, industrial capacity and domestic value addition.

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Onunaiju also criticised government spending priorities, saying Nigeria would struggle to industrialise if resources were not directed towards productive sectors.

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“You will give credit to politicians, to buy goods, to marry new wives, to have houses in Dubai, but we do not support our industries. How do you think the magic will happen with China’s zero tariff?” he asked.

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He urged the NIIA and other institutions to provide policymakers with concrete recommendations on how Nigeria could exploit the policy.

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“The institute should be ready to play a role, a historic role, prepare a verdict from the memo to the authorities, that this is the way to go, this is where to allocate resources, you must create institutional transparency, institutional credibility, and build up institutional capacity to respond to China’s zero tariff,” he said.

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He also called for improved logistics, customs procedures and accreditation facilities.

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“After what we have done, logistics, concessional accredited facilities, Customs, to align the rules, making it more straightforward, so that exporters, manufacturers, can understand it. Without all this, we won’t get too far,” he said.

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The Director-General of the NIIA, Eghosa Osaghae, said Nigeria and other African countries should examine the experience of the 33 African countries that previously enjoyed China’s zero-tariff treatment before celebrating the expanded policy.

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He said China first introduced the preferential arrangement in 2005 for 33 African countries in the lowest-income bracket.

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“Those 33 low-income countries that have enjoyed this since 2005 — you need to find out what has happened. What has changed? How has it changed? What impact did zero tariff have on those countries, on those economies?” Osaghae said.

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He said such an assessment was necessary to determine why some countries had not recorded significant structural transformation despite having enjoyed preferential access for years.

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“If those 33 countries didn’t have so much to show for what they enjoyed over time, we must begin to ask the question: how can we now ensure that we don’t make the same mistakes again?” he said.

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Osaghae said Africa also needed to approach the policy through regional economic blocs and the African Continental Free Trade Area.

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“One possible way would be to regionalise our trade structures so that as ECOWAS, as SADC, as EAC and so on, these regional bodies can then become market goods,” he said.

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He said greater regional integration would prevent the benefits from being concentrated in only the continent’s largest economies.

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“Within the context of the African Continental Free Trade Area framework, this is the way to go. We must pull together, and that’s a challenge for us as Africans,” he said.

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According to him, Nigeria and South Africa were likely to be among the biggest beneficiaries because of the size of their economies, but regional cooperation would be necessary to ensure weaker economies were not left behind.

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“If we are going to be equitable in the benefits that would accrue from the zero-tariff treatment, we must go regional. We must see how we can pull those resources and harness the markets,” Osaghae said.

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He noted that Nigeria was not currently among China’s five largest trading partners in Africa and said the country should seek to change that.

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“Nigeria is not currently on the list of China’s top five trading partners in Africa. But we must get there, and there’s every reason to incentivise us to do so,” he said.

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Osaghae also situated China’s policy within the wider global trade tensions, noting that tariffs had become a major issue in international economic relations.

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He said the United States’ tariff policies had created uncertainty for economies across Europe, Asia and Africa, while China’s move represented one response to the changing global trading environment.

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A professor of political science, Femi Otubanjo, said the policy should be examined critically rather than automatically accepted as a benevolent gesture.

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“Is the zero policy a great gift? Is it a subtle instrument of Chinese imperialism? Why? Is it a challenge only regarding its imperialism? Or is it a political economy imperialism? Who needs this to benefit? Who should benefit?” he asked.

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Otubanjo said Africa could only derive maximum benefit from the policy if its economies were diversified and industrialised.

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“To get the maximum advantages of this tariff policy, Africa must diversify the economy. More importantly, Africa must be industrialised.

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“If we do not diversify our economy and become industrially competitive, we are unlikely to get the benefits of this policy,” he said.

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He warned that Africa could remain a dumping ground if it continued to export raw materials while importing finished products.

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“If what we are doing is selling raw materials and importing finished goods, we will continue to receive goods while we are not competing,” he said.

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The Chinese Consul-General in Lagos, Yan Yuqing, said the policy was already producing measurable results less than four months after it came into effect.

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Yan said China-Africa trade reached RMB1.41 trillion in the first half of 2026, describing it as a record for the period.

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She said China’s imports from Africa reached RMB 193.8 billion, up by 23.5 per cent year-on-year.

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According to her, the zero-tariff policy had helped increase overall African exports to China by about six per cent.

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Nigeria, she said, had recorded particularly strong growth.

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“Nigeria’s performance has been especially striking: total bilateral trade reached $18 billion in the first half of the year, up 35 per cent year-on-year, while Chinese imports from Nigeria surged 80 per cent to $2.3 billion, with monthly growth exceeding 40 per cent in both May and June,” Yan said.

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She said the policy had already reduced costs for Nigerian exporters of several products.

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According to her, Nigerian exporters of sesame could save about $11,000 in tariff costs for every 100 tonnes exported to China, while the country’s annual export of about 7,000 tonnes of cattle bone granules could save nearly $450,000 in duties.

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She also cited the clearance of a 23,000-tonne shipment of Nigerian liquefied propane at Qinzhou Port on the first day of the policy, saying the shipment saved about $300,000 in taxes.

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Yan said China and Nigeria had also recently signed an agreement on inspection and quarantine requirements for Nigerian wild aquatic products, which she said would resolve market-access issues for the sector.

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She urged Nigeria to move quickly to ensure local businesses met Chinese inspection and certification requirements.

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“I fully support the initiative of Mr Joseph Tegbe, Minister of Power of Nigeria, calling for accelerated implementation of agreements, support for businesses to meet China’s inspection and certification standards, and the translation of market access into real export and investment gains,” she said.

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Yan said China was prepared to support African countries with technical assistance, industrial parks, processing technology and training.

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She also announced that China would establish “green channels” for African exports, expand commodity exhibition and sales platforms and promote cross-border e-commerce to reduce trade costs and improve access to Chinese buyers.

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She said China and Nigeria’s Framework Agreement on Economic Partnership for Shared Development, signed on March 26, would also provide a basis for deeper cooperation in manufacturing, agriculture, services, green development, investment and digital trade.

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Yan said the Chinese Consulate in Lagos would use the policy to facilitate trade between Chinese and Nigerian businesses, particularly across southern Nigeria.

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“We are willing to actively facilitate business exchanges and cooperation between the two countries, provide greater convenience for Nigeria to expand exports to China, promote the transition from primary commodity exports to value-added product exports, and support Nigeria in achieving diversified and high-quality development,” she said.

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She said 75 per cent of China’s exports to Africa were capital and intermediate goods rather than consumer goods, describing them as inputs needed for African industrialisation and agricultural modernisation.

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Yan also said China’s zero-tariff policy was part of its broader commitment to expanding economic relations with Africa.

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“China is committed to working with Nigeria and other African countries to fully leverage the favourable zero-tariff policy, further deepen mutually beneficial cooperation, transform China’s vast market into Africa’s great opportunity,” she said.

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