Insecurity, political violence biggest threats to Nigeria’s 2027 elections — IRI

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The International Republican Institute has said persistent insecurity and election-related political violence are the biggest threats to Nigeria’s 2027 general elections, warning that they could undermine voter participation and public confidence in the electoral process.

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The IRI President, Daniel Twining, disclosed this on Friday in Abuja at a press conference on the institute’s pre-election assessment mission to Nigeria ahead of the 2027 general elections.

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Twining, who said the delegation had engaged more than 65 stakeholders, stressed that Nigeria’s electoral credibility would depend not only on technical preparations but also on citizens’ ability to participate without fear and trust that their votes would be respected.

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“The most acute vulnerability identified by our election observation assessment mission is security. Persistent insecurity and election-related political violence erode confidence in the electoral process and depress voter participation.

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“Where voters, candidates, and observers cannot participate without fear of violence or intimidation, technical improvements and legal safeguards have only limited effect,” Twining said.

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He added that the 2027 elections would take place at a critical moment for Nigeria and democracy across Africa, given the country’s size and influence on the continent.

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“Nigeria is the continent’s largest democracy and its political trajectory carries significance well beyond its borders.

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“The resilience of Nigeria’s institutions and the quality of electoral competition in Nigeria carry not only national but real regional and global implications,” he said.

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Twining said the assessment also identified political consolidation and opposition fragmentation as factors that could further affect confidence in the electoral process.

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“This challenge is unfolding within a political landscape that really has transformed considerably since 2023, with consolidation within the ruling party, consolidation of political power, and opposition parties continuing to fragment.

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“Taken together, these political and security pressures risk further deepening an existing deficit of public trust in electoral institutions and the credibility of the broader electoral process,” he said.

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According to him, Nigeria nevertheless retains important foundations for democratic competition, including established electoral institutions, civil society and a multi-party political system.

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He added that public confidence remained one of the most consequential challenges facing the process, particularly because the experience of the 2023 elections continued to influence perceptions of the Independent National Electoral Commission.

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“The experience of 2023 continues to shape perceptions of INEC, particularly with respect to results transmission and collation. In 2027, electoral credibility will depend not only on administrative capacity, but very much on the transparent exercise of institutional authority,” he said.

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Twining said the institute’s recommendations were designed to address vulnerabilities before the elections.

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“Our delegation approached this assessment with a straightforward objective: to identify practical steps that can strengthen confidence in Nigeria’s electoral process well before voters go to the polls in 2027.

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“Over the course of the mission, we met with more than 65 stakeholders, whom we thank for their cooperation and insights.”

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He said the findings were also based on IRI’s observation of the Ekiti and Osun off-cycle governorship elections, as well as the work of long-term analysts deployed ahead of the delegation.

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“At the heart of these recommendations is public confidence,” he said.

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He added, “Credibility is not produced by law, technology, or institutions alone. It is built when Nigerians believe they can vote without fear, that their choice will be respected, and that power cannot be used to override the will of the voter.”

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Presenting recommendations on election administration, IRI Regional Director, Africa, Jenai Cox Dye-Fraser, called on INEC to establish clearer procedures for dealing with communication failures during electronic transmission of results.

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She said INEC should issue supplementary guidance defining communication failure and establishing a uniform procedure for documenting and resolving electronic results transmission failures.

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“The guidance should explain when physical form EC8A becomes the primary basis for collation and how discrepancies between physical and electronic records will be reconciled,” Dye-Fraser said.

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She also urged INEC to clarify the procedures governing its authority to review declarations and returns under Section 65, including the grounds for review and standards for decision-making.

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“Clear procedures established before election day would reduce uncertainty and the risk of inconsistent application in closely contested races,” she said.

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Dye-Fraser further called for more robust stress tests of INEC’s systems and mock elections to identify potential challenges with the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System and IReV.

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“This includes ensuring that BVAS can accredit voters by fingerprint and photo collection in various real-life settings, including areas with limited cellular connectivity,” she said.

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She also urged INEC to communicate operational decisions, procedural changes and contingency measures through consistent and authoritative channels.

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“When changes or exceptional measures are required, the commission should explain them promptly to stakeholders and the public to build confidence and counter misinformation,” Dye-Fraser said.

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On ballot secrecy, she said INEC and polling security personnel should ensure that voters were able to mark their ballots away from the view of polling agents and observers.

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“This is reducing opportunities for voter intimidation and vote buying,” she said.

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On security, the IRI recommended that INEC and security agencies prioritise the protection of election facilities, participants, materials, party agents and observer groups without restricting lawful access.

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The institute also called for existing threat assessments to identify areas where violence or insecurity could suppress participation or disrupt election administration, with location-specific mitigation plans developed for such areas.

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Speaking on electoral offences, former US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Ambassador Jendayi Frazer, urged political parties to hold their officials, agents and supporters accountable for vote buying and voter inducement.

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“National and state leadership should communicate clear expectations throughout party structures and ensure they are enforced down to local and polling unit levels, including sanctions, fines, and prosecution of civil and criminal offences,” Frazer said.

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She also called on INEC, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission and security agencies to investigate credible allegations of vote buying and voter inducement.

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“Authorities should make clear that financial or material inducements are incompatible with legitimate political competition,” she said.

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Frazer urged political parties to train and supervise their agents on lawful conduct, ballot secrecy and results verification.

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“Political parties should take responsibility for the conduct of their agents and promptly address violations committed on election day,” she said.

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She also warned political leaders against inflammatory campaign rhetoric.

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“Political leaders and parties should refrain from rhetoric that threatens opponents, incites violence, or portrays electoral defeat as inherently illegitimate,” Frazer said.

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On voter participation, the IRI recommended targeted voter education in areas with low participation or high levels of distrust and insecurity, while urging INEC to improve accessibility at polling units for persons with disabilities.

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It also called for an update of the internally displaced persons voting framework and expanded efforts to assist IDPs in transferring their voter registration to locations where they currently reside.

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On information integrity, the institute urged political parties and candidates to refrain from producing or amplifying false information, manipulated electoral materials and AI-generated impersonations capable of undermining confidence or inflaming tensions.

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It also called on INEC to strengthen timely and authoritative public communication to identify and correct false narratives.

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The IRI said the recommendations were intended to be preventative, stressing that Nigeria still had time to address the identified vulnerabilities before the 2027 elections.

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“If implemented, these measures could help strengthen transparency and trust,” the institute said.

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