Iceland votes on whether to reopen door to EU

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Icelanders go to the polls on Saturday in a referendum on whether to resume membership negotiations with the European Union, in a tight race that will be closely watched in Brussels.

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The country of just under 400,000 people applied to join the EU in the wake of a 2009 financial crisis that devastated its economy.

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The membership talks were suspended in 2013 when a eurosceptic government came to power.

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Now, the result of the referendum is expected to be very close, with the latest opinion polls putting the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ sides neck and neck.

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“It’s pretty tight, but I’m always optimistic,” Foreign Minister Thorgerdur Katrin Gunnarsdottir, a staunch europhile, told AFP. “It’s not done until it’s done.”

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Voting begins at 9:00 am (0900 GMT) and closes at 10:00 pm. With no exit polls and given the tight race, the first reliable results are only expected late Saturday at the earliest.

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The around 273,000 voters are being asked to answer ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ to the question: “Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?”

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If the “Yes” side wins, an accession agreement would be negotiated with Brussels and then put to a new referendum on actual membership.

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The issue of fisheries — a pillar of Iceland’s economy and over which Reykjavik wants to retain exclusive control — would have to be hammered out with Brussels, which this time around appears more willing to compromise.

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“The fundaments are very domestic, but there is a significant impact that has come with the second term of (US President) Donald Trump and this sort of geopolitical upheaval,” Bifrost University political scientist Eirikur Bergmann told AFP.

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With Iceland’s economy now flourishing, some voters see no reason to discuss EU membership, seeing as the country already has access to the single market as a member of the European Economic Area.

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“It’s like if you are in a relationship with someone you don’t live with, and if you lose something you have by getting married, then why get married?” said Hjordis Vilhjalmsdottir, a 60-year-old radio presenter whose eyeglasses bore the red, blue and white of Iceland’s flag.

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“We don’t need Brussels to rule us. We can do it ourselves,” said Elias Theodorsson, a 65-year-old entrepreneur.

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“We used to be one of the poorest countries in Europe only a hundred years ago. And now we are the most prominent country in Europe. We did it ourselves,” he said.

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– Money talks –

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The flip side of Iceland’s regained prosperity is soaring inflation and interest rates.

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Some households are paying nine percent interest on their mortgages, making the prospect of joining the eurozone — with its much lower rates — very appealing.

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“There’s such a big gap, and it would mean so much for my household,” said Alexandra Yr van Erven, a 32-year-old university administrator.

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“I just think it’s the responsible thing to do, to give this government the agency to negotiate a deal with the EU, so we can see what the possibilities are. And then we can evaluate the deal.”

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On the global stage, the return of war in Europe with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken established security doctrines.

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The unpredictability of US President Donald Trump and his threats to take over neighbouring Greenland have added to Icelanders’ concerns.

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Their island is strategically located in the sub-Arctic, has no military and depends on NATO and a 1951 bilateral agreement with the United States for its defence.

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“People are now bringing into question the validity of that agreement,” Bergmann said. “The geopolitical shifts are impacting the debate, but they’re not driving it.”

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The referendum result will be followed closely by the EU, which has not welcomed a wealthy, net contributor to its budget since 1994.

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Brussels would see Icelandic membership as an example of positive enlargement that could also make it more palatable to take in poorer countries like Montenegro — or even help change some minds in ultra-wealthy non-EU member Norway, which could end up finding itself isolated.

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“Iceland’s decision would undoubtedly strengthen the case for the EU to welcome new members,” EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos noted.

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AFP

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