Elon Musk asserts that fatalities in Africa decreased following reduction in American assistance

Tech billionaire Elon Musk made a claim on Tuesday that the number of deaths across Africa has decreased following significant cuts to US foreign aid funding, attributing this trend to the termination of programmes that allegedly fueled instability.

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This assertion was made by Musk in response to criticism of the Department of Government Efficiency initiatives, which he has supported, and which have led to a substantial reduction in funding for the US Agency for International Development.

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According to Refugees International, US humanitarian funding plummeted from $14 billion in 2024 to $3.7 billion in 2025, with the organisation describing the closure of USAID as the most prominent manifestation of a broader decline in international humanitarian assistance.

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The Center for Global Development also reported a decline of about 58 per cent in USAID spending in 2025 compared to the previous year.

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However, health experts and aid organisations have warned that the funding reductions could have severe humanitarian consequences, with a study published in The Lancet in July 2025 projecting that the cuts could contribute to more than 14 million deaths globally by 2030.

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This study also estimated that over 4.5 million children could be among the victims, highlighting the potential severity of the situation.

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New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof, citing estimates from the Center for Global Development, wrote last year that more than 1.6 million people could die within a year without US support for HIV prevention and treatment.

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Elon Musk, however, shared 2025 mortality data from several African countries on X, showing no detectable rise in deaths after the funding reductions, and claiming that deaths in Africa actually decreased.

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Musk wrote that the decrease in deaths occurred because the funding cuts prevented the push for violent revolution to install leftist regimes, quoting an analysis that highlighted South African all-cause death statistics.

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The data referenced by Musk includes a graph of weekly deaths in South Africa from January 2023 to May 2026, marking the period after USAID/PEPFAR cuts, and observed excess deaths were reported near zero, falling below pre-cut projections.

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Accompanying analysis cited studies questioning the broader health impacts of foreign aid, including a 2019 paper finding minimal statistical links between aid levels and improvements in life expectancy or mortality rates in developing nations.

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Musk has repeatedly defended the aid reductions as necessary to eliminate waste, corruption, and misuse of taxpayer dollars for political purposes rather than pure humanitarian efforts.

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He argued that prior USAID activities in the region contributed to violent revolutions aimed at installing leftist regimes, and that halting such funding removed a source of conflict.