Economists cite reform impact as Nigeria’s revenue hits N15.8tn

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Economists have attributed Nigeria’s strong revenue performance in the first five months of 2026 to the impact of recent tax reforms, improved revenue administration and stronger earnings from the oil sector, following government collections of N15.8tn during the period.

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According to data from the Nigeria Revenue Service reported by Bloomberg, government revenue rose by 49 per cent year-on-year from N10.6tn recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.

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The figure also exceeded the government’s baseline growth target of 11.6 per cent, providing early evidence of the gains from fiscal reforms aimed at widening the tax base, improving compliance and strengthening revenue administration.

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Former Chief Economist at Zenith Bank, Marcel Okeke, said the performance reflects a combination of tax reforms, improved administration and better output from the oil sector. “The introduction of new tax laws is beginning to yield results by expanding the tax base and improving efficiency in collection,” Okeke told Saturday PUNCH.

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Even excluding revenues from newly introduced taxes, collections still rose by 15 per cent to N12.2tn, indicating stronger underlying efficiency in tax administration and improved compliance across major revenue streams, the publication reported.

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According to the report, oil-related taxes increased by more than 20 per cent to N3.96tn, supported by higher crude oil prices amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which boosted export earnings and fiscal inflows from the petroleum sector.

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Okeke said the improvement in oil-related revenue also reflects better performance in crude production and exports.

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“It’s been a long time since Nigeria consistently met its production quota in terms of oil output and exports. It will also mean that tax administration is improving because the intention of some of the provisions of the tax law is to expand the tax base and improve efficiency in tax collection,” the economist stated.

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Another economist, Dr Aliyu Ilias, said the revenue increase reflects the effect of tax revisions, higher excise duties and broader policy measures introduced to boost government earnings.

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“If you look at taxes, they have been reviewed, so it is expected that you have an increase. In fact, if you look at excise duty also, you see there is a lot that has been done,” he said.

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He added that developments in the oil market and government policy direction have also supported revenue growth, noting that although it is still early to fully assess the impact of the new tax regime, initial indicators remain encouraging.

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Non-oil revenue rose by 12.3 per cent to N8.2tn, reflecting stronger collections across key economic activities and ongoing efforts by authorities to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons.

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The figures exclude proceeds from revised personal income tax rates administered by state governments, which took effect on January 1, 2026.

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While welcoming the improved fiscal performance, both economists cautioned that the sustainability of the gains would depend on whether increased revenues translate into infrastructure development, economic stability and broader improvements in living standards.

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The revenue growth comes after Africa’s most populous nation implemented sweeping tax reforms under President Bola Tinubu, who established the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, chaired by tax expert Taiwo Oyedele, to design the overhaul.

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Tinubu signed four landmark tax reform bills into law on June 26, 2025, following their passage by the National Assembly that same month. Full implementation began on January 1, 2026, despite earlier calls for a delay.

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The reforms replaced existing tax legislation, including the Personal Income Tax Act, with the Nigerian Tax Act, 2025, and established the Nigeria Revenue Service to streamline tax administration and improve compliance.

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