Cameroon's Leadership Void Resurfaces Amidst President Biya's 48-Day Disappearance

As of Saturday, 48 days will have passed since Cameroon's President Paul Biya, 93, departed the country, marking a significant period of absence for the world's oldest head of state, who has been in power for over 40 years.

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On June 7, an official statement announced that Biya had left for a "short, private stay in Europe" with his wife Chantal Biya, prompting speculation about his health, which has been a subject of concern and rumour in the past.

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Despite the government's denials, including a statement by Communication Minister Rene Emmanuel Sadi on June 18, which refuted claims that Biya had been hospitalised in a Geneva clinic, the opposition has expressed concerns about the president's absence.

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Mamadou Mota, vice-president of the Cameroon Renaissance Movement (MRC), described Biya's absence as indicative of a "glaring institutional vacuum" in a Facebook post on Friday.

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Earlier this month, Patricia Tomaino Ndam Njoya, president of the Cameroon Democratic Union (UDC), called for the establishment of an impartial procedure to determine the temporary or permanent incapacity of the head of state.

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However, Jacques Fame Ndongo, a senior official in the ruling party and minister of higher education, dismissed accusations of a power vacuum on Tuesday, stating that the head of state is closely following files submitted by his aides, regardless of his location.

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Allegations of a power vacuum in Cameroon are not new, with similar concerns raised in late 2024 when Biya spent around 50 days outside the country, and the opposition Social Democratic Front (SDF) party has now claimed that the country is "on autopilot".

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Biya's repeated absences over the past 20 years have contributed to widespread frustration among Cameroonians, who are discontent with the government's inaction, according to Viviane Ondoua Biwole, a professor of public management at the University of Yaounde.

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Ondoua Biwole noted that the current government has been in place for a record eight years, and the recent election results have been met with mixed reactions, leading many to feel that it is time for renewal.

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Biya's re-election for an eighth term in October was marked by demonstrations that were violently repressed, resulting in "several dozen" deaths, according to the government, although the exact toll has not been disclosed.

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The election results were challenged by the opposition and received with reserve by Western embassies, and in his address to the nation on December 31, Biya promised to form a new government team "in the coming days", but seven months later, this has yet to happen.

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Municipal and legislative elections have been postponed multiple times, indefinitely extending the terms of sitting officials, further exacerbating the sense of uncertainty and stagnation in the country.

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In an effort to initiate institutional change, Cameroonian authorities replaced the presidents of both chambers of parliament in March and created a vice-presidential post via constitutional reform in May, but no vice-president has been appointed yet.

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The lack of progress has fuelled conspiracies, including the circulation of fake documents in June, which claimed that a vice-president had been appointed, but were later determined to be false by journalists.

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The incident has amplified speculation about the post-Biya era, with the race for his succession shrouded in uncertainty, according to Ondoua Biwole, who noted that there is a "more or less visible" crisis at the highest levels of government.

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Political scientist Stephane Akoa agreed, stating that "increasingly leaks mention infighting between the various factions in his inner circle", with First Lady Chantal Biya emerging as a key figure, whose name is often mentioned in decision-making and appointments.

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In the event of a power vacuum, the senate president, Aboubakary Abdoulaye, is next in line to lead until a presidential election can be organised, as no vice-president has been appointed to assume the role.