2027: Voter registration figures must mirror turnout

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ORDINARILY, the Independent National Electoral Commission’s announcement that voter registration has crossed the 100-million-mark should be cause for celebration. For a country desperate to deepen democratic participation, a nine-figure electorate should translate into massive turnout at the polls.

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But Nigeria’s electoral history counsels caution. Registration has repeatedly risen while voter turnout has fallen. Unless INEC, political parties, security agencies, the judiciary, civil society and the electorate deliberately break with this dismal pattern, the latest registration figure could become another impressive statistic with little meaning on Election Day.

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Since 1999, the gap between registered voters and those who actually vote has widened disturbingly. Of the 57.9 million registered for the 1999 election, 52 per cent voted. In 2003, turnout climbed to 69 per cent of 60.8 million registered voters, the highest in the Fourth Republic. The figure is comparable with participation in some established democracies.

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The decline thereafter has been relentless. Turnout fell to 57 per cent of 61.5 million registered voters in 2007 and 54 per cent of 73.5 million in 2011. In 2015, only 44 per cent of 68.8 million registered voters cast ballots. The figure plunged to 35 per cent of 84.2 million in 2019.

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Then came the nadir. In the 2023 presidential election, only 27 per cent of the 93.4 million registered voters turned up. That means nearly three-quarters of registered voters stayed away from Nigeria’s most consequential electoral contest.

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The contrast with other democracies is stark. Turnout at the United Kingdom’s 2024 general election was 59.7 per cent, while the United States recorded 66 per cent in 2020 and 64 per cent in 2024.

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Nigeria cannot continue to boast of an expanding voter register while presiding over a shrinking electorate at the polling booth. A register of more than 100 million voters means little if millions of those voters remain spectators when it matters most.

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The reasons are obvious. Nigerians have been repeatedly told that their votes count, only to watch elections marred by violence, vote-buying, manipulation, disputed results and prolonged litigation. When citizens lose faith in the ballot box, registration becomes an exercise in resignation rather than participation.

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INEC therefore has a particularly heavy responsibility. The commission must ensure that the enthusiasm generated by the latest registration exercise does not evaporate before Election Day. The collection of Permanent Voter Cards must be made as simple and efficient as possible.

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If banks can issue ATM cards within minutes, voters should not have to endure weeks or months of bureaucratic frustration to collect the document that enables them to exercise their constitutional right.

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Technology must equally be used consistently, not selectively. INEC introduced technological innovations to strengthen electoral integrity, but the controversy surrounding the transmission of results in 2023 damaged public confidence.

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The commission must not make promises it cannot keep. If results are meant to be transmitted electronically, the system must work transparently and verifiably from the polling unit.

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The encouraging performances in recent governorship elections, including Ekiti and Osun, should reinforce public confidence.

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Reports that results were uploaded to the INEC portal and the relatively peaceful conduct of the polls show that Nigeria can run elections in which technology, logistics, and security work better together.

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The judiciary also has a role to play. Election disputes should be resolved on the substance of the evidence rather than buried under technicalities. Where credible evidence establishes that an election was fundamentally compromised, the remedy should protect the voters’ mandate, not merely determine which litigant wins a legal contest.

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The judgement by a judge, Peter Kekemeke, in the suit brought by Ephraim Okoye, challenging the results recorded at his Finance Quarters 1, Wuye, Abuja polling unit during the February 25, 2023 presidential election, is particularly instructive. The court affirmed the right of voters to protect their votes and challenge electoral results. That principle should encourage voters to observe the process, preserve evidence of irregularities and seek legal redress where necessary.

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But institutions alone cannot rescue Nigerian democracy. Citizens must also reject the fatalistic belief that their votes are worthless.

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Politicians thrive on apathy. The fewer people who vote, the easier it becomes for money, intimidation, manipulation and organised electoral malpractice to determine outcomes. Mass participation is one of the strongest defences against rigging. It is far more difficult to manufacture an electoral outcome when millions of citizens are physically present to cast and defend their votes.

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The 2027 contest is already being poisoned by dangerous rhetoric. Threats issued by politicians against voters, including the reported threats by Osun Central Senator Francis Fadahunsi and Kuje Area Council chairman Samuel Shekwolo, are unacceptable. So is the reported threat by Borno State Commissioner for Youths and Sports Development, Saina Buba, against those who might vote against the ruling APC.

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Such statements are not political bravado. They are threats against the democratic rights of citizens and should be treated as such by law-enforcement agencies.

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The violence that followed the Osun governorship election, including the reported killing of transport union official Olalekan ‘Ajagungbade’ Oyeyemi and another person in Ile-Ife, underscores the danger. Political competition must never become a licence for bloodletting.

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The Inspector-General of Police, Tunji Disu, must therefore make electoral security a priority. State police commands should be placed on notice that intimidation, political thuggery and attacks on voters will not be tolerated.

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Politicians who threaten voters should be investigated and prosecuted, irrespective of party affiliation or status. Nothing will discourage voter participation faster than the perception that political violence carries no consequences.

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Yet Osun offers a powerful counterpoint to the cynicism.

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Despite political threats, internal party conflicts, the reported freezing of the Accord Party-led government’s account by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission and other controversies surrounding the August 15 governorship election, voters turned out in significant numbers.

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The state recorded about 51 per cent turnout, one of the strongest figures recorded in a Nigerian election in the Fourth Republic. That is the message the rest of the country should take from Osun. Fear does not have to win; apathy is not inevitable.

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The National Orientation Agency, civil society organisations and the media must now build on that example. Voter education should go beyond Abuja and state capitals. It should reach markets, motor parks, schools, communities and rural areas, using local languages where necessary. Citizens must be encouraged to register, collect the PVC, vote, protect the ballot and reject vote-buying.

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Professional organisations need to rediscover their civic responsibility. Political parties and politicians have long cultivated influential grassroots structures, including transport unions and market associations, because they understand their electoral value.

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The Nigerian Bar Association, Nigerian Union of Journalists, Nigerian Medical Association and other professional bodies should not surrender the civic space to political machines and patronage networks.

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Most importantly, Nigerians must understand that democracy does not end with registration. Registration merely opens the door. Voting is the act that gives the registration meaning.

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The more than 100 million names now on the voters’ register should therefore not become another monument to Nigerian underperformance.

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INEC must earn public confidence; the police must guarantee security; the judiciary must protect the voter’s mandate; political parties must restrain their agents; the media and civil society must educate and mobilise citizens; and Nigerians themselves must refuse to surrender their franchise to fear, inducement or cynicism.

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The reported improvements in recent governorship elections provide grounds for cautious optimism. INEC’s technological upgrades and better electoral logistics should be sustained and strengthened, not abandoned when the stakes become higher.

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The 2027 general elections offer Nigeria an opportunity to reverse the shameful trajectory from 69 per cent turnout in 2003 to just 27 per cent in 2023.

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Nigeria has crossed 100 million registered voters. It must not cross another electoral milestone with millions of them staying at home.

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In 2027, the size of the voters’ register must be reflected in turnout.

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