Whither the fuel subsidy savings?

n n

When President Bola Tinubu declared the end of the fuel subsidy regime in May 2023, Nigerians were asked to absorb immediate pain in exchange for a promise. The savings, estimated at several trillions of naira annually, would be redirected into healthcare, education, infrastructure and social protection. Nearly three years later, that promise has not been accounted for, and the silence surrounding it is becoming impossible to ignore.

n

The case for subsidy removal was strong. The scheme had degenerated into a patronage machine, consuming public funds while benefiting oil importers far more than ordinary Nigerians. Its removal was the right call. But the credibility of any difficult reform rests on what follows. Citizens who absorb the cost of a policy correction are entitled to see where the gains go.

n

What they see instead is a government that continues to borrow at significant scale. Nigeria’s public debt has kept rising since the subsidy was removed, with fresh loans approved regularly to finance budgets and manage economic pressures. This is not automatically a contradiction. Fiscal policy operates across multiple accounts, and a government can legitimately save in one area while borrowing to fund capital projects in another.

n

But that distinction only holds if the savings are visible, tracked and reported. Without transparent accounting, the coexistence of rising debt and claimed savings will continue to look, to most Nigerians, like a broken promise. The government has pointed to palliative distributions, wage adjustments and targeted welfare programmes as evidence of reinvestment.

n

These interventions were short-term responses to an immediate crisis, not a structured deployment of savings into durable development. A one-off transport subsidy or a temporary wage award does not constitute a fiscal dividend. What is required is a clear, published breakdown of how much has been saved quarter by quarter since May 2023, and a line-by-line account of how those funds have been allocated across the budget. This is not an unreasonable demand. It is standard fiscal practice in countries that take public accountability seriously.

n

The National Assembly should legislate a mandatory quarterly subsidy savings report, independently audited and publicly accessible. The Fiscal Responsibility Commission, which has been for too long a passive institution, must enforce compliance and publish findings without political interference. The wider risk is not merely public frustration. It is the erosion of the social contract that makes difficult reforms possible in the first place.

n

If Nigerians conclude that sacrifice is demanded of them but gains are withheld or diverted, government in future will find it nearly impossible to secure public support for any serious economic adjustment. The subsidy removal was a defining moment. The question it left behind is simple and fair: where did the money go? The government has had three years to answer it. The waiting must end.

n n