Valuable insights from the north: Nuhu Ribadu's downfall, part two

In his recent move to create a parallel Special Adviser on "Homeland Security", President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has made a purely political maneuver, signaling the downfall of Nuhu Ribadu and the rise of General Famadewa, as argued by Suleiman A. Suleiman in the first installment of this series last week.

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This development is not an administrative or operational adjustment, but rather a calculated political step, highlighting the unpredictable nature of the office of National Security Adviser, which has evolved over time to become one of the most powerful yet volatile positions in Nigerian politics and governance.

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Ribadu's failure to fully comprehend the complexities and chequered history of the National Security Adviser position led to his downfall, as he could have avoided the unforced errors that ultimately stripped him of his power if he had approached the job with a deeper understanding of its nuances.

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The fall of Ribadu reflects a broader pattern of northern elite political behavior under southern presidencies since 1999, where southern presidents, including Tinubu, have sought to address perceived historical grievances of "northern domination", often leading to the marginalization of northern politicians.

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Southern presidents, including Obasanjo, Jonathan, and now Tinubu, have tended to arrive in office with a sense of historical grievance, which has led to the downfall of northern politicians who have failed to understand this dynamic, including Ribadu, who has become the latest casualty of this phenomenon.

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Ribadu made three fatal mistakes, including actively seeking to position himself as the "head of the northern delegation" within the Tinubu administration, which brought him into direct conflict with Vice President Kashim Shettima, the natural head of the northern delegation.

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Ribadu's attempt to undermine Shettima and become the sole interface between the Tinubu government and northern Nigeria not only weakened Shettima but also destabilized the entire northern flank of the party and government, preventing the creation of a collective sense of unity and partnership within the administration.

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This lack of unity has made it easier for Tinubu to pick off northern politicians he no longer likes or trusts, including the removal of Senator Abdullahi Adamu as national chairman of the APC, the political intimidation of the Sultan of Sokoto, and the side-lining of Vice President Shettima.

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Northern Nigeria, which contributed 65% of the votes for Tinubu's victory, has been relegated to a subordinate status in the government, lacking political coherence and a sense of collective partnership, largely due to Ribadu's contest for northern leadership with Shettima.

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Ribadu's insistence on being the sole bridge between Tinubu and the north ultimately weakened not just Shettima but the entire northern wing of the government and party, and ultimately, himself, providing a valuable lesson for all northern politicians to remember.

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Furthermore, Ribadu misread the political instinct of Tinubu and his circle, who arrived in Abuja in May 2023 with a sense of self-importance as the true heirs of Chief Obafemi Awolowo in Yoruba politics, viewing Ribadu's job as a role not meant for a non-Yoruba appointee.

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Ribadu failed to recognize the real threats to his job, which lay in the competition from insiders around Tinubu, who viewed him as an outsider, and instead focused on the wrong targets, ultimately leading to his downfall.

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As a lone Fulani in a forest of Yoruba heads around the president's kitchen table, Ribadu was in a precarious position, which he failed to recognize, unlike many northern youths who have worked in Yoruba-dominated environments and understand the dangers of such a demographic.

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Ribadu's trust in Tinubu was misplaced, as there is a significant difference between a Nigerian Yoruba man and a Yoruba Nigerian, with the latter being more likely to prioritize ethnic loyalty over personal relationships, as seen in the contrast between Presidents Obasanjo and Tinubu.

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While a President Obasanjo would provide protection and cover for Ribadu, a President Tinubu would be more prone to paranoia and susceptible to whispers, which would be enough to seal Ribadu's fate, regardless of their truth.