Tinubu edges Obi by 1,067 responses in Oxford-Metro poll

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President Bola Tinubu finished ahead of Peter Obi by 1,067 responses in the Oxford–Metro Analytics’ National Trust Poll.

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The ​‌‍‍‍‍⁠⁠‌‍⁠‌‌⁠‍​​‌​poll, which closed on Sept. 7, recorded a total of 69,110 approved and unflagged responses in its final analytical dataset.

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Tinubu received 24,469 responses, representing 35.41 per cent of the total responses, while Obi polled 23,402, representing 33.86 per cent of the total responses.

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Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar came third with 18,430 responses, representing 26.67 per cent of the total participation.

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The result gave Tinubu an advantage of 1,067 responses over Obi, translating to approximately 1.54 percentage points.

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The poll’s regional distribution, however, suggested a significantly different electoral map from the outcome of the 2023 presidential election.

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Tinubu, who won 12 states in the 2023 presidential election, was reported to have led in 20 states and the Federal Capital Territory in the online poll.

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Meanwhile, Obi and Atiku recorded the highest number of responses each in eight states.

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The strongest changes were recorded in parts of Northern Nigeria, where the poll indicated growing support for Tinubu.

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Tinubu led in Kaduna, Katsina and Gombe, which were states won by Atiku during the 2023 presidential election.

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He also led in Kano, where New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) candidate, Rabiu Kwankwaso won the presidential vote in 2023.

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At the regional level, Tinubu led in the South-West, North-West and North-Central geopolitical zones.

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Obi recorded his strongest performances in the South-East and South-South, while Atiku led the North-East.

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In the South-West, Tinubu received 10,968 responses, representing 43.53 per cent of the region’s total participation.

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He also led in the North-West with 4,129 responses, accounting for 43.10 per cent of responses from the zone.

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In the North-Central, Tinubu secured 6,370 responses, representing 36.97 per cent of the regional total.

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Obi’s strongest regional performance came from the South-East, where he received 5,796 responses, representing 63.97 per cent.

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The Labour Party candidate also led the South-South with 2,389 responses, accounting for 41.48 per cent of participants in the region.

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Atiku dominated the North-East, where he received 1,235 responses, representing 55.46 per cent of the region’s total.

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In spite of Tinubu’s wider geographical spread, the national contest remained remarkably close between the leading candidates.

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The difference of 1,067 responses between Tinubu and Obi underscored the narrow margin separating the two leading contenders.

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Some individual state contests were considerably closer than the broader regional figures suggested.

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In Kogi, for instance, Tinubu received 39 responses, Atiku 38 and Obi 33 out of only 110 responses recorded.

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The one-response difference between Tinubu and Atiku in Kogi demonstrated the importance of considering the relatively small participation base in interpreting the figures.

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In the FCT, Tinubu secured 5,599 responses against Obi’s 5,278, giving him a lead of 321 responses, while Atiku received 3,954.

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In Rivers, Tinubu polled 975 responses, compared with Obi’s 892 and Atiku’s 568, leaving an 83-response margin between the two leading candidates.

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Beyond the three leading candidates, Omoyele Sowore received 1,016 responses, followed by Seyi Makinde with 519 and former President Goodluck Jonathan with 284.

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Anita Zugwai-Chukwu received 18 responses, Sandy Onor received six responses, while Prince Kennedy Ahanotu recorded two responses.

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Another 638 participants selected the option, “I Do Not Trust Any Candidate Yet,” while 204 respondents were undecided and 122 selected “Other Candidate.”

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The distribution showed that winning the overall tally did not necessarily translate into dominating every geopolitical zone or state.

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Tinubu’s lead nationally and across three geopolitical zones contrasted with Obi’s dominance in the South-East and Atiku’s strength in the North-East.

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However, participation was heavily concentrated geographically, with Lagos and the FCT alone accounting for 54.44 per cent of all responses.

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The final dataset also contained 56 diaspora responses, which were excluded from the six domestic regional tallies.

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(NAN)

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