Three Years Under Tinubu: Industrial Expansion Remains Elusive as Policies Fail to Yield Tangible Results, Says Manufacturers Association

President Bola Tinubu's administration has introduced an array of economic and industrial reforms over the past three years, aiming to revitalize Nigeria's manufacturing sector, attract investment, and stimulate production-led growth.

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These initiatives include intervention funds, industrial roadmaps, fiscal reforms, local content policies, and foreign exchange restructuring, all designed to strengthen the country's industrial base, but manufacturers argue that tangible improvements in industrial performance have yet to materialize.

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The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) acknowledges the administration's efforts, but emphasizes that the challenge now lies in translating these policies into lower production costs, improved competitiveness, and measurable industrial growth.

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According to MAN Director General Segun Ajayi-Kadir, the past three years have been a period of difficult but consequential economic transition, with the administration demonstrating courage in addressing long-standing structural distortions within the economy.

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However, Ajayi-Kadir notes that the burden of these reforms has fallen heavily on manufacturers, who continue to grapple with the consequences of these changes.

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The administration's N200 billion Presidential Intervention Fund is a flagship initiative aimed at supporting manufacturers and Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), with a structured approach comprising a N75 billion Manufacturing Sector Fund, N75 billion MSME Loan Scheme, and N50 billion Nano Business Support Scheme.

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This fund is intended to ease access to affordable financing and support productive enterprises struggling under rising operating costs, but manufacturers maintain that the broader industrial environment remains challenging.

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The Nigeria Industrial Policy (NIP) 2025 is a comprehensive 10-year framework designed to transform the country's industrial landscape, targeting a significant increase in manufacturing's contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2030.

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The policy proposes the recapitalization of the Bank of Industry (BoI) to N3 trillion to expand industrial financing, and MAN views this policy as one of the most significant industrial initiatives introduced by the administration.

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Ajayi-Kadir believes that the policy provides a strategic framework capable of driving industrial transformation, improving access to finance, and strengthening development finance institutions, but its success depends entirely on implementation and the government's ability to create a supportive operating environment.

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The 'Nigeria First' policy is another major initiative, directing Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) to prioritize locally manufactured goods and services in public procurement, aiming to stimulate domestic production and reduce dependence on imports.

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MAN has strongly welcomed this initiative, describing it as potentially transformative for local manufacturers, and Ajayi-Kadir notes that effective implementation could significantly expand demand for Nigerian-made products and encourage new investments.

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However, he cautions that consistent enforcement is crucial to avoid this policy becoming another well-intentioned initiative with limited practical impact.

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The administration's foreign exchange reforms, including the unification of foreign exchange windows and the liberalization of the exchange rate regime, aim to improve transparency, eliminate market distortions, and attract foreign investment.

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While acknowledging these objectives, MAN argues that the immediate impact on manufacturers has been severe, with the sharp depreciation of the naira significantly increasing the cost of imported machinery, raw materials, and industrial inputs.

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A proposed legislation requiring a minimum of 30 per cent local value addition before selected agricultural commodities and solid minerals can be exported has received strong support from manufacturers, who believe it could stimulate local processing industries and create jobs.

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The 2025 Tax Reform Act is another celebrated reform, introducing far-reaching fiscal changes aimed at improving competitiveness and reducing the burden of taxation on businesses, with provisions such as withholding tax exemptions and research and development incentives.

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MAN has welcomed these measures, believing they could significantly improve the business environment and encourage industrial investment, and also expressed optimism about efforts to harmonize taxes and levies across states.

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The administration's Naira-for-Crude initiative enables domestic refineries to purchase crude oil in naira rather than in US dollars, aiming to reduce pressure on FX demand, strengthen the local currency, and improve domestic energy security.

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MAN considers this initiative one of the more impactful reforms introduced so far, with Ajayi-Kadir noting that it has helped ease pressure on FX demand within downstream petrochemical and plastics value chains.

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The National Single Window (NSW) is a digital platform designed to integrate government agencies and private stakeholders involved in import and export processes, aiming to reduce cargo clearance times, improve transparency, and lower transaction costs.

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MAN has welcomed the platform, noting that efficient trade logistics remain critical to industrial competitiveness, and successful implementation could reduce delays at ports, improve supply chain efficiency, and lower operating costs for manufacturers.

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Despite acknowledging the potential benefits of many government initiatives, MAN insists that manufacturers continue to face significant challenges arising from broader macroeconomic reforms, including soaring energy costs, higher logistics expenses, and elevated borrowing costs.

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Ajayi-Kadir notes that the removal of fuel subsidies, exchange rate liberalization, electricity tariff increases, and tight monetary policies have dramatically altered the operating environment, with many manufacturers relying heavily on diesel, gas, and petrol-powered alternatives to compensate for unstable power supply.

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MAN argues that borrowing costs have become prohibitively expensive for manufacturers seeking to invest and expand, following the monetary authorities' decision to raise the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) several times and tighten access to credit.

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For manufacturers, the central question is no longer whether the government has introduced enough policies, but whether those policies can deliver measurable industrial results, with Ajayi-Kadir stating that the reforms have laid the groundwork for long-term economic restructuring.

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According to him, Nigeria's manufacturing sector requires a more coordinated policy environment that deliberately lowers the cost of production, supports investment, and enhances competitiveness, and the true test of the Tinubu administration's reform agenda will be reflected in the revival of factory activity, expansion of local value chains, job creation, and sustained growth in industrial output.

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MAN's verdict is that while several policies show promise and could transform the industrial landscape if effectively implemented, manufacturers are yet to see those initiatives translate into the broad-based industrial growth needed to reposition the sector as a major driver of Nigeria's economic development.