Stop attributing fictional one million votes to Tinubu in Kwara's central region

Dr. Yakub Oloriegbe's assertion that the Ilorin Emirate Political Advisory Council would secure one million votes for President Tinubu in 2027 appears overly ambitious, given the existing voter demographics in Kwara Central.

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Kwara Central comprises four local government areas: Asa, Ilorin East, Ilorin South, and Ilorin West, with a total of 648,091 registered voters, according to the final list used for the 2023 general elections.

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To reach one million voters, the zone would need to add 351,909 voters between 2023 and 2026, a feat that seems unlikely considering the entire state of Kwara added only 157,318 voters between 2019 and 2023.

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Assuming this growth were possible, the issue of voter turnout would still pose a significant challenge, as Kwara Central's turnout was approximately 30% in 2023, while the state's overall turnout was 32.7%.

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For Dr. Oloriegbe's promise to materialize, all registered voters would need to cast their ballots, and every vote would need to be valid, a scenario that has never occurred in any Nigerian presidential election, including the 2003 election, which had the highest turnout of 69.1%.

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The one million vote promise also raises questions about the origin of these votes, as a substantial number of people from Kwara South live and vote in Ilorin, and their voting patterns tend to align with their zone of origin.

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Historically, Kwara South has consistently supported certain candidates, as evidenced by their votes for Mallam AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq as governor in 2019 and 2023, demonstrating a steadiness that could be crucial for the APC's success in 2027.

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As an Ilorin native and APC supporter, the author is speaking out against the "one million votes" claim to protect President Tinubu from being misled, rather than out of envy towards Dr. Oloriegbe, a retired teacher and political newcomer seeking public attention.

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Dr. Oloriegbe's promise is deemed ridiculous, as it invites under-investment in mobilization, allows internal fractures in Kwara Central to persist, and sets the party up for a credibility problem when the actual results are announced.

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The bigger concern lies in Kwara Central's actual voting record, with the zone delivering only 87,989 votes in the 2023 presidential election, which accounted for merely 33% of President Tinubu's total votes in Kwara State.

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The governorship election results were equally underwhelming, with the APC's vote count in Kwara Central dropping from 123,063 in 2019 to 90,804 in 2023, a decline of 32,259 votes.

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This decline underscores the fact that a zone losing over 32,000 votes in one cycle is not a reliable foundation for a one million vote promise, and confidence must be grounded in a solid plan.

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The APC in Kwara needs a plan that acknowledges the actual location of votes and where they have been consistent, rather than relying on a sensational headline that touts a fake promise.

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Kwara South's consistency is a significant factor, particularly in a state where every election cycle feels like a new beginning, and loyal supporters value this steadiness.

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Ultimately, the data reveals that Kwara Central is not a vote bank, but rather a zone in decline, and the notion that a political advisory council can "deliver" votes to the President ignores the complexities of Kwara politics since 2019.

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President Tinubu should not be sold a promise that cannot be kept, and the APC in Kwara cannot build its 2027 strategy on an unrealistic number, just as Kwara Central cannot deliver what it does not possess.

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The voter register, turnout history, and 2023 results all indicate a collapsing vote base in Kwara Central, and if the goal is to win Kwara convincingly in 2027, the strategy must be based on reality, not what sounds impressive in a press release.

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The reality, if acknowledged, points to Kwara South as the consistent vote bank of Kwara State, and this should inform the party's strategy for the upcoming election.