SEREC warns of risk posed by US–Iran tension for African maritime

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A general view of the Chinese guided-missile destroyer Tangshan (Hull 122), (L), the Stoykiy, the Iranian navy ship, the IRIS Makran 441 (2nd L), and the South African SAS Amatola (F145), (R) in Simon’s Town harbour, near Cape Town, on January 9, 2026. The Chinese lead Will For Peace 2026 exercise 2026 brings together navies from BRICS Plus countries for joint maritime safety operations. (Photo by RODGER BOSCH / AFP)

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By Providence Ayanfeoluwa

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The Sea Empowerment and Research Center, SEREC, has warned that African maritime nations face heightened economic and security challenge due to the escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.

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The Centre highlights the far-reaching implications for import-dependent economies across the African Union economies considered to be particularly vulnerable.

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In the communiqué signed by Head of Research at SEREC, Eugene Nweke, said rising global oil prices and shipping could translate into higher fuel and food inflation, while currency depreciation pressures may intensify.

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Nweke said any prolonged disruption could trigger sustained oil price volatility, freight rate escalation, war-risk insurance spikes, and global inflationary pressure.

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He pointed out that maritime security is also expected to come under greater pressure, with shipping routes becoming more volatile, African nations may need to expand naval coordination and surveillance to safeguard trade corridors, particularly in the Gulf of Guinea.

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In its recommendations, SEREC urged Nigeria and regional partners to channel oil windfall gains into stabilization and infrastructure investment rather than recurrent expenditure. It also advised guaranteeing steady crude allocation to domestic refineries, strengthening maritime security coordination across the Gulf of Guinea, expanding strategic petroleum reserves, and deepening regional trade integration to reduce reliance on volatile extra-African shipping routes.

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The communiqué stressed that Nigeria’s resilience will depend not merely on crude revenue gains but on disciplined fiscal management, domestic refining optimization, trade diversification, and maritime competitiveness. Without coherent national policy alignment, the potential stabilizing role of the Dangote Refinery could be undermined

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“The US–Iran confrontation is more than a geopolitical conflict — it is a structural stress test for global trade and maritime systems. Nigeria’s ability to withstand external shocks will hinge on prudent fiscal discipline and strategic maritime cooperation”.

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