Osun poll: Key elements that will determine the outcome for Adeleke, Oyebamiji, Salaam, and other candidates on Thursday

President Bola Tinubu has given assurances to the people of Osun State that they will be provided with adequate security during and after the upcoming governorship election, urging them to come out and exercise their franchise without fear or intimidation.

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With campaigning now concluded, 15 candidates are set to compete in the election, which will see 1.9 million registered voters decide their fate, with key factors such as influence, popularity, and performance expected to shape the outcome.

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Fresh violence has erupted in Ijesaland, with suspected political hoodlums attacking Esa-Oke and shooting two APC members, Oladele Ayegbo and Taiwo Oluwatobi, although the attack is reported to have occurred on Wednesday.

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Security agencies have embarked on a show of force in the state, with 15,000 policemen, 31 Commissioners of Police, helicopters, and drones deployed to ensure a peaceful election.

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Amnesty International Nigeria has vowed to take action against Senator Francis Fadahunsi over remarks attributed to him in a viral video, while former Chief of Defence Staff, General Lucky Irabor, has called for decisive action against politicians who make inciting statements.

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President Tinubu's assurance of adequate security comes ahead of the poll, with the President represented by Senate President Godswill Akpabio at the grand finale of the APC governorship campaign in Osogbo.

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The candidates competing in the election include Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord party, Bola Oyebamiji of the APC, and Najeem Salaam of the ADC, among others, with each presenting their manifestoes and campaigning across the state.

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Governor Adeleke's re-election bid is hinged on his five-point agenda, while Oyebamiji's campaign is focused on his 'Prosperity agenda' and Salaam's 10-point agenda, with each candidate seeking to win the support of the people.

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Adeleke's prospects are boosted by his incumbency and the support of civil servants and labour unions, as well as traditional rulers, although his administration has faced criticism over policy decisions and allegations of nepotism.

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Oyebamiji's campaign has been endorsed by President Tinubu and APC governors, with the candidate's philanthropy and personality winning him support, although his association with the Oyetola administration's policy decisions may be a challenge.

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Salaam's humble nature and grassroots appeal have attracted supporters, particularly in Osun-West Senatorial District, although his affiliation with Rauf Aregbesola and the ADC's limited structure may be a challenge.

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The control of local government administration is a key factor in the election, with the APC and Accord party battling for control, although the matter is still in litigation.

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Infrastructure development has been a major focus of the Adeleke administration, with over 300 km of road network completed across the state, including dualized roads in several towns.

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Elite conspiracy against the governor's family is another issue, with some classifying the administration as the "Adeleke dynasty government" rather than a party or state stakeholders' government.

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The election has also been marked by traditional rulers taking sides, with some openly campaigning for their preferred candidates, while others have chosen to remain neutral.