Nigeria's expected economic expansion for 2026 has been revised downward by the World Bank to a 4.1% rate.

The World Bank has revised its economic growth forecast for Nigeria, now anticipating an average growth rate of 4.1 percent in 2026, down from its previous projection of 4.4 percent made in October 2025.

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In its latest forecast, the bank also adjusted its projection for 2027, lowering it to 4.2 percent, while predicting a growth rate of 4.3 percent for 2028.

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The World Bank's April 2026 Africa Economic Update, titled 'Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa,' attributes the growth forecast to more stable macroeconomic conditions and a gradual recovery in investment.

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The services sector, including ICT, finance, and real estate, is expected to drive growth, whereas agriculture and industry are anticipated to expand at a slower pace due to structural constraints.

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The bank forecasts that inflation will decrease from 23 percent in 2025 to 14.9 percent in 2026, and further decline to 10.7 percent by 2028, reflecting the delayed impact of policy tightening and improving supply conditions.

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Although poverty levels remain high, they are expected to decline gradually as inflation eases, albeit at a slower pace due to higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict.

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Rising oil prices may support fiscal and external balances, but this could be offset by capital flow volatility amid global uncertainty.

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However, business sentiment and reform momentum may be dampened by factors such as commodity price volatility, tighter global financial conditions, security concerns, and policy uncertainty ahead of the 2027 elections, according to the World Bank.

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The bank predicts that economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa will grow by 4.1 percent in 2026, unchanged from 2025, with the region's 2026 growth forecast revised downward by 0.3 percentage points compared to the October 2025 projection.

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Several large countries in the region, including Angola, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, and Zambia, have had their 2026 growth forecasts revised downward.

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Approximately 60 percent of the countries in the region, or 29 out of 47, have recorded downward revisions to their 2026 growth forecasts, according to the report.

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Despite the downgrade, the World Bank notes that economic activity across the region has been supported by improved macroeconomic stabilization, including better inflation control, stronger domestic currencies, and easing fuel and food prices.