Nigeria’s economy recovering after painful reforms —NRS

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ABUJA — The Nigeria Revenue Service, NRS, has said the Nigerian economy is showing strong signs of recovery and accelerated growth following a series of “painful” reforms implemented by President Bola Tinubu.

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The revenue service, in an internal report, said the economy had moved “decisively from acute macroeconomic distress toward a more stable and increasingly resilient footing.”

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According to the report, the improvement followed reforms introduced by the Tinubu administration.

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The NRS said the administration inherited four major economic distortions: a fiscally unsustainable fuel subsidy regime, an opaque foreign exchange system that discouraged investment, a non-performing oil sector and a tax base “far below its potential.”

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It said that despite the initial economic pains associated with the reforms, key indicators were now pointing to recovery, including retreating inflation, an improved balance of payments, increased oil production, higher tax collections and changes in the country’s productive base.

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The report said minimum wage had doubled between 2023 and 2026, while policies and incentives introduced by the government had contributed to reducing the number of out-of-school children from 20 million to 18.3 million, according to UNICEF estimates.

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It also credited the naira-for-crude arrangement with Dangote Refinery and other local refineries with helping Nigeria become a net exporter of petroleum products after decades of dependence on imports.

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Oil production, according to the report, rose from about 1.2–1.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.73 million barrels per day by July 2026, representing 104 per cent of the country’s OPEC quota.

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The NRS said the improved economic outlook had also been reflected in the capital market, with the market capitalisation of the Nigerian Exchange, NGX, rising from N30.36 trillion in 2023 to N161 trillion in 2026.

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It attributed the rally partly to improved macroeconomic credibility, banking-sector recapitalisation and a growing pool of domestic institutional investment.

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Tax collections more than doubled from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion as of July 2026, which the report attributed to the digitisation of tax systems, four new tax reform laws, transformation of the revenue service and an executive order aimed at closing loopholes.

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The report said economic growth increased from 2.74 per cent in 2023 to 3.8 per cent in the first half of 2026, while external reserves rose from $3.99 billion in 2023 to $51.9 billion as of July 2026.

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It added that the balance of payments moved from a $3.34 billion deficit to a $2.38 billion surplus in the first quarter of 2026.

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Nigeria’s trade position also improved, with the country moving from a marginal trade surplus of about N44.7 billion to N7.55 trillion in the first quarter of 2026.

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Annual capital importation increased from $3.9 billion in 2023 to $23.22 billion in 2025, while inflows reached $10.37 billion in the first quarter of 2026.

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The report also highlighted developments in the compressed natural gas, CNG, programme, saying more than 100,000 vehicles had reportedly been converted by 2026, with over $2 billion in investment mobilised and more than 10,000 jobs created.

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On agriculture, the NRS said federal agricultural allocation increased from N228.4 billion in 2023 to N826.5 billion in the 2025 budget, following measures including the release of strategic grain reserves, establishment of a N100 billion National Agricultural Development Fund, fertiliser distribution and agricultural mechanisation.

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The report said food prices had fallen by about 50 per cent by March 2026, citing the Ministry of Agriculture, but cautioned that agriculture would require several planting seasons for policy support to translate into increased output.

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On debt, the NRS said although Nigeria’s debt stock rose from N87.4 trillion in 2023 to N159.28 trillion in late 2025, the debt-to-GDP ratio fell from 38 per cent in 2023 to 35.5 per cent in 2025 and 32.3 per cent in 2026.

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It described the decline as the first sustained reduction in more than a decade, while debt servicing as a share of revenue fell from 68 per cent to an IMF-projected 53 per cent.

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