Nigeria Sees 9% Decline in Crude Production, Down to 1.483 Million Barrels Per Day

Nigeria's oil production, including condensate, has experienced a significant decline, dropping by 9% to 1.483 million barrels per day in February 2026, compared to 1.627 million barrels per day in January 2026, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, NUPRC.

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This downward trend is further emphasized by a year-on-year decrease of 11% from 1.671 million barrels per day in February 2025 to 1.483 million barrels per day in February 2026.

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The NUPRC's report on crude oil and condensate production highlights that the lowest and peak combined crude oil and condensate production levels were 1.52 million barrels per day and 1.82 million barrels per day, respectively.

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The average crude oil production accounts for 95% of the OPEC quota, which is set at 1.5 million barrels per day, with a daily average production of 1,544,345 barrels per day, comprising 1,421,960 barrels per day of crude oil and 122,385 barrels per day of condensate.

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The cause of the continued decline in Nigeria's oil output is not specified by the Commission, but an industry leader, who wishes to remain anonymous, attributes it to aged facilities and oil theft in the Niger Delta.

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This industry leader expresses concern that despite the NUPRC's "one million programme", the expected increase in oil output has not materialized, suggesting that factors such as aged facilities and oil theft are contributing to the decline.

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The decline in oil production means that the nation has not met its target of 1.8 million barrels per day, as outlined in the 2026 budget, despite high oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel.

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The 2026 budget is based on conservative assumptions, including a crude oil benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, daily oil production of 1.84 million barrels, and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar for the 2026 fiscal year.

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Meanwhile, the NUPRC has shortlisted investors who applied for the nation's 50 oil blocks under its 2025 Licensing Round, with pre-qualified companies to be granted access to relevant data for the technical and commercial bid submission stages.

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The Commission, in a statement signed by its Head of Media and Strategic Communication, Eniola Akinkuotu, announced that the pre-qualification stage of the 2025 Licensing Round has been completed, with successful applicants notified accordingly as of March 16, 2026.

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From March 17, 2026, the NUPRC will permit successful applicants to lease data in preparation for the technical and commercial bid submissions, with pre-qualified applicants required to lease data only from the two approved sources and upload evidence of payment as a prerequisite for bid submission.