Nigeria may be pushed back into reliance on foreign fuel imports due to potentially misguided World Bank guidance, according to energy specialists.

Energy experts have come out strongly against the World Bank's recent advice to Nigeria, urging the country to increase fuel imports and fully liberalise its downstream petroleum sector, with critics arguing that this move would be ill-timed, economically regressive, and in direct contravention of the Petroleum Industry Act.

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Ken Ife, an energy economist and professor, expressed his disagreement with the World Bank's stance during a televised interview on Nigeria's economic outlook, noting that while certain aspects of the World Bank's Nigeria Development Update were analytically sound, the recommendation to increase fuel imports poses a threat to Nigeria's strategic push for energy independence and local value addition.

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Ife stated that advising Nigeria to reverse course and return to fuel importation would undermine the country's efforts to achieve economic self-reliance, saying "You cannot come to a country that is struggling, and which has just developed a vision of economic self-reliance and then advise it to reverse course and return to fuel importation."

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He emphasized that the World Bank's advice directly contradicts the Petroleum Industry Act, which prioritizes the supply of domestic crude to local refiners under the Domestic Crude Obligation framework, and stressed that "The law is very clear, Domestic refining must come first."

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Ife warned that increasing fuel importation would leave Nigeria more vulnerable to global supply disruptions, accelerate foreign exchange depletion, and discourage ongoing investments in local refining, particularly at a time when private sector participation is expanding capacity.

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He questioned the empirical basis of the World Bank's fuel import recommendation, describing it as an unsupported addition to an otherwise rigorous report, and asked "We are on track to build refining capacity that will exceed domestic demand and position Nigeria as an energy exporter, how can anyone credibly suggest that we abandon this progress and return to reckless import dependence?"

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Ife also cautioned that the World Bank's fuel policy stance could worsen rather than improve economic conditions, despite the bank's accurate assessment of Nigeria's macroeconomic indicators, including GDP growth projections and sectoral performance.

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Another energy expert, Kelvin Emmanuel, echoed Ife's concerns, criticising the World Bank's position as flawed and disconnected from prevailing market realities, and disclosed that the World Bank had reportedly withdrawn the contested Nigeria Development Update from its website.

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Emmanuel stated that "The World Bank has retracted the report, if you check the World Bank Nigeria website, you will see that the document has been taken down," and dismissed claims that imported petrol could be cheaper than locally refined fuel, insisting that current global market conditions make such assumptions unrealistic.

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He explained that rising crude oil prices, driven largely by tensions in the Middle East, have fundamentally altered pricing dynamics, and noted that while futures prices hover around $100 per barrel, spot prices are significantly higher, with "Dated Brent trading at about $144 per barrel, which translates to roughly N1,249 per litre before distribution and other costs."

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Emmanuel argued that any suggestion that imported fuel is cheaper could only be explained by quality compromises, saying "The only way imported petrol can appear cheaper is if standards are compromised, which, historically, has been the case."

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He also rejected claims that fuel prices in Nigeria are excessively high, noting that petrol remains cheaper domestically than in neighbouring African countries, and stated "There is nowhere in the region where petrol is sold as cheaply as it is in Nigeria."

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Emmanuel argued that Nigeria's challenges stem from inconsistent enforcement of domestic supply frameworks rather than resource scarcity, and explained that "Fuel price pressures in Nigeria are largely contrived, if local refiners receive crude supply as stipulated by law, prices will stabilise and volatility will reduce."

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He further criticised the World Bank's advocacy for expanded social safety nets funded through borrowing, warning that such measures conflict with Nigeria's fiscal responsibility laws, and said "Social safety nets are important, but you do not borrow money to share, borrowing is meant for capital projects and human development, not consumption."