Nigeria Fails to Meet OPEC Target, Pumps 1.38 Million Barrels Per Day in March

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By Udeme Akpan, Energy Editor

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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has disclosed that Nigeria’s crude oil output, excluding condensate, rose to 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) in March 2026, up from 1.31 million bpd recorded in February.

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In its March 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), OPEC stated that the figures were based on data obtained through direct communication with Nigerian authorities.

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However, data from secondary sources showed that Nigeria’s production stood at 1.46 million bpd in March, compared to 1.44 million bpd in February.

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Despite the marginal increase, Nigeria fell short of both its OPEC production quota of 1.5 million bpd and its 2026 budget benchmark of 1.84 million bpd, which includes condensate.

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Nonetheless, Nigeria retained its position as Africa’s leading oil producer, ahead of Libya, which recorded output of 1.30 million bpd during the period.

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Meanwhile, industry regulators and operators have outlined a coordinated roadmap to boost Nigeria’s crude oil production to three million bpd, emphasising the need for sustained regulatory reforms, increased investment, digitalisation, and critical infrastructure development.

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Speaking at the 26th Oloibiri Lecture Series and Energy Forum in Abuja, the Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Mrs. Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, said the 3mbpd target by 2030 is achievable under the current policy direction.

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She noted that the goal builds on a near-term target of two million bpd by 2027 and would depend on frameworks that attract capital, encourage innovation, and enable digital oilfield operations.

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Eyesan added that the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 has repositioned the upstream sector through a regulatory framework anchored on certainty, transparency, and performance, helping to restore investor confidence.

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According to her, recent projects such as Bonga North, Ubeta, and HI developments—collectively unlocking over $10 billion in investments—demonstrate the impact of clear policies and streamlined approvals.

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She further stressed that digital transformation, including real-time data systems, predictive maintenance, and advanced analytics, would play a critical role in reducing costs, minimising downtime, and boosting output.

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Eyesan also highlighted improved oil recovery as a key driver of production growth, noting that new performance-based frameworks now compel operators to maximise reservoir value.

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