Mathematician who predicted three World Cup winners names who win 2026 edition

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German mathematician Joachim Klement has forecast that the Netherlands will emerge as champions of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, continuing his unusual record of accurately predicting past tournament winners.

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Klement previously predicted Germany’s triumph in 2014, France’s victory in 2018 and Argentina’s success in 2022, making his model one of the most closely watched — and debated — in football analytics.

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He has previously admitted that his original aim was to prove that such predictions were unreliable, especially given the unpredictable nature of international football.

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“The first time I was horrified when Germany became world champions in Brazil, also because all the experts had pointed out that no European team had ever won a World Cup in South America,” he said.

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Klement’s statistical model factors in a wide range of variables, including GDP per capita, population size, the cultural importance of football in a country, FIFA world rankings, and a randomness component he says is essential to reflect the sport’s unpredictability.

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Using the model, he predicts the Netherlands will defeat Spain in the semi-finals before beating Portugal in the final. In the other semi-final, he expects Portugal to overcome England.

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Despite his track record, Klement is cautious about how seriously his forecasts should be taken.

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“It’s completely irrational,” he said. “It’s like playing the lottery. I always say that if anyone places a bet based on my prediction of who will be the next world champion, they’re beyond help.

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“It’s like tossing a coin. You might predict that the coin will land on heads four times in a row rather than tails, and that might well happen. But that doesn’t guarantee it will happen again next time.”

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The Netherlands remain one of football’s strongest national teams never to have won a World Cup, despite reaching three finals in their history.

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Ronald Koeman’s side will begin their 2026 campaign against Japan on June 14, with Sweden and Tunisia completing their Group F fixtures.

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