Lagos issues alert to citizens about potential deluges and heavy downpours expected in 2026

Lagos Commissioner for the Environment and Water Resources, Tokunbo Wahab, has alerted residents to the possibility of flooding and strong winds as the rainy season commences, emphasizing the need for preparedness and adherence to environmental regulations.

n

The Commissioner for Environment, Mr Tokunbo Wahab, disclosed this information during a news conference with journalists at the Ministry of the Environment in Lagos, where he also discussed seasonal climate predictions and their socio-economic implications for the state.

n

Wahab's warning was based on forecasts released on Feb. 10 by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMET), which outlined expected rainfall patterns, temperature changes, and other weather parameters across the country.

n

The state's annual briefing, conducted to inform residents and prepare them for the expected impact of the rainy season, is part of efforts to mitigate the effects of related weather events.

n

The 2026 prediction is based on a projected weak La Niña and a neutral phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which could influence rainfall patterns, with a weak La Niña featuring slightly cooler-than-normal Pacific waters.

n

This phenomenon causes minor shifts in rainfall and weaker global impacts, such as reduced Atlantic hurricane activity, while an ENSO-neutral phase is the normal state with no extreme, favouring typical seasonal weather patterns.

n

According to the forecast, the rainy season is expected to have an early to normal onset, a normal to late cessation, and normal to above-normal rainfall across the state, with temperatures expected to be above normal between March and May.

n

The year 2026 is predicted to start with a weak La Niña in January, while the neutral phase of ENSO is expected to persist within the first six to eight months of the year, suggesting an early onset of the rainy season, a longer-than-normal duration, and a delayed end of the rainy season in Lagos.

n

Above-normal rainfall amounts are anticipated in the first peak of the rainy season, while normal rainfall amounts are expected in the second peak of the rainy season, with the rainy season expected to start as early as the last week of March and end in the first week of December.

n

The average annual rainfall amount predicted is between 1650 and 3030 mm, with specific predictions including rainfall beginning on March 31 in Ikeja with a cessation date of December 2 and an estimated annual rainfall of 1,932 mm.

n

Badagry is projected to experience rainfall from March 28 to December 3, with an annual rainfall of about 2,010 mm, while Ikorodu is expected to record rainfall from March 31 to December 2 with about 1,935 mm.

n

Lagos Island is projected to have rainfall from March 30 to December 2 with about 1,968 mm, and Epe is expected to record rainfall from March 29 to December 3, with an annual rainfall of about 1,984 mm.

n

The average rainfall expected across the state's 20 Local Government Areas is about 1,965 mm, with Lagos and neighbouring Ogun State likely to experience above-normal rainfall.

n

Heavy rainfall could lead to flooding in some parts of the state, while strong winds at the onset and end of the rainy season could pose risks to lives and property, with thunderstorms and heavy rains potentially disrupting commercial activities and causing flight delays.

n

The state government has strengthened its monitoring system through its network of weather and river gauge stations to improve preparedness for weather- and flood-related incidents, and is collaborating with NiMet on seasonal climate predictions to provide early warning tools for farmers, planners, and businesses.

n

The state has intensified flood control measures, including year-round drainage maintenance and sustainable solid waste management, and is maintaining strong collaboration with the Ogun-Oshun River Basin Development Authority to regulate water release from the Oyan Dam.

n

Low-lying communities such as Agiliti, Agboyi, Itowolo, and Ajegunle are closely monitored due to the possibility of flooding from the Ogun River, and the Lagos State Signage and Advertisement Agency has been placed on alert to ensure compliance with safety regulations for billboards and telecommunications masts.

n

Emergency response and traffic management agencies have been placed on high alert to reduce the impact of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall, and residents are being urged to desist from indiscriminate dumping of refuse and construction on drainage channels, which contribute significantly to flooding.

n

Residents living along flood plains in areas such as Owode, Iwaya, Makoko, Badia, Ijora, Isaalu, Pota, and Shibiri are advised to remain vigilant and be prepared to relocate to safer areas if necessary, and motorists are urged to observe speed limits during the rainy season to avoid accidents.

n

Residents are also encouraged to regularly clear drains around their homes to ensure the free flow of stormwater and support government efforts to prevent flooding across the state.