Kwankwaso's Tactical Maneuvers: Shift from Presidential Hopeful to Potential Running Mate, Analyzed by Olu Fasan

Olu Fasan notes that Lord Palmerston, a 19th-century British Prime Minister, famously said, “There are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests,” in reference to relations between nations, but this phrase has been hijacked by Nigerian politicians to justify their unprincipled behavior.

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Nigerian politicians have taken this phrase to heart, often changing their stance without hesitation, and it is not uncommon for them to go to bed saying one thing and wake up saying the exact opposite, with their actions driven by self-interest rather than principle.

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Civilized societies frown upon such behavior, but in Nigeria, it is celebrated, with politicians like Bola Tinubu embodying this mindset, as evident in his 2014 visit to former President Olusegun Obasanjo to solicit his help in stopping then President Goodluck Jonathan’s re-election.

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Tinubu, who was once a sworn enemy of Obasanjo, told him, “We are determined to rescue Nigeria,” and “We want you to lead the mission,” demonstrating how shared interests can overcome past differences.

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Tinubu’s philosophy is defined by the idea that there are no permanent friends or enemies in politics, only permanent interests, which has guided his actions as governor and president, where he has accommodated old enemies who became useful and sidelined old friends who crossed him.

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For example, when Reno Omokri turned 50 in 2024, President Tinubu sent him a congratulatory message, but he did not extend the same courtesy to Professor Pat Utomi when he turned 70, highlighting the principle of no permanent friends or enemies but permanent interests at play.

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Omokri, who was once a vocal critic of Tinubu, has since ingratiated himself with the president and was rewarded with an ambassadorial posting to Mexico, while Professor Utomi, who was once a friend and intellectual mind of the APC, has been insulted by Tinubu’s aides due to their diverged interests.

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Lord Palmerston’s famous aphorism has been bastardized by Nigerian politicians, who prioritize self-interest over principle, and Bola Tinubu is the patron saint of this school of thought, which is prevalent among all Nigerian politicians.

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These politicians, who are birds of a feather, change parties at the drop of a hat and form alliances with former foes, as seen in the recent decision by Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso, former Kano State governor and presidential candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party, to join the Nigerian Democratic Congress alongside Peter Obi.

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Kwankwaso’s willingness to serve as Obi’s running mate in next year’s presidential race is a classic case of self-interested strategic calculations, which may store up trouble for the future if driven by mere self-interest rather than high ideals.

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In 2022, Kwankwaso argued that he could not serve as Obi’s running mate due to his superior experience and education, but his recent about-turn has raised questions about the motivations behind his decision.

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Kwankwaso’s reversal of his 2022 positions is remarkable, and his strategic calculations are evident in his desire to align with the position that power should remain in the South for a second term in 2027 and to position himself for a potential presidential bid in 2031.

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By supporting a Southern candidate, Kwankwaso earns himself brownie points in the South, and if the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket wins, he would be well-placed to become the next president in 2031 when power returns to the North.

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Alternatively, if the OK ticket fails, Kwankwaso would be a strong Northern candidate in 2031, and Obi would be wise to consider being his running mate to remain politically relevant.

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Kwankwaso’s acceptance of a subordinate role as Obi’s running mate in 2027 is not a humiliating volte-face, but rather a strategic climbdown, a self-interested calculation that might pay off for both next year or in years to come.