Key PDP Figures, Including Makinde, Bala, and Turaki, Confront Daunting Decisions in Run-Up to 2027

Nigeria's main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party, is facing an uncertain future after a recent Appeal Court ruling, which has left the party with only two governors and a looming decision that could determine its survival as a national political force.

n

Behind a small mosque in Abuja, 41-year-old phone repairer Samaila Ibrahim is working on a cracked smartphone, when a customer reads out a headline about the crisis in the PDP, prompting Samaila to pause and ask, "So the court has cancelled their convention?"

n

The customer nods, and Samaila shakes his head, returning to his work and wondering, "If their convention no longer exists, who will present their presidential candidate?" a simple question that captures the deeper uncertainty surrounding the party.

n

The Court of Appeal recently nullified the PDP's national convention held in Ibadan last year, effectively disappearing the leadership structure that emerged from the convention, and shifting the balance of power inside the party to a faction aligned with FCT Minister Nyesom Wike.

n

The ruling has left the party with a caretaker committee headed by Abdulrahman Mohammed as chairman and Samuel Anyanwu as secretary, which is recognised by the Independent National Electoral Commission, and is widely seen as politically aligned with Wike.

n

A senior PDP figure aligned with the Mohammed/Anyanwu leadership stated, "Politics is about structure, and right now, the structure is not on their side," highlighting the challenges faced by the party.

n

The PDP once dominated Nigeria's political landscape, governing the country for 16 years and controlling more than a dozen states, but today, only two governors remain under its banner, Seyi Makinde and Bala Mohammed, who are both serving their final terms.

n

Both governors want influence over who succeeds them in 2027, but the crisis at the national level now threatens those plans, as the party's recognised national leadership is required to submit candidate nominations to the Independent National Electoral Commission.

n

A senior party official involved in recent consultations said the two governors are watching events closely, understanding that the national structure determines who signs the candidate lists, and without influence at that level, their leverage going into 2027 becomes very limited.

n

One possible path for the party is to continue the legal fight, with supporters of the Turaki faction considering an appeal to the Supreme Court of Nigeria, but this route could take time, potentially months or longer.

n

Former Senate President Abubakar Bukola Saraki warned that waiting for the final ruling could complicate the party's preparations, as the electoral calendar keeps moving, and urged party leaders to focus on reconciliation and organising a fresh convention that complies with electoral rules.

n

Kogi Central senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan also appealed for reconciliation, saying the PDP must move beyond prolonged court battles and shift focus to rebuilding, as the party's members across the grassroots must not become casualties of disagreements among leaders.

n

Election lawyer Nnamdi Ezeobi noted that disputes over party leadership often create serious complications, as candidates are submitted through a party's recognised national leadership, meaning such disputes can expose those nominations to legal challenges later.

n

Speculation has grown about whether the two governors might eventually leave the party, with some observers believing Bala Mohammed could move to the All Progressives Congress, and Makinde has been mentioned in conversations involving the African Democratic Congress.

n

If either governor leaves, the consequences could be dramatic, as the PDP would lose its last state governments, and the party's survival as a national force would be further threatened.

n

A dispute that helped trigger the legal crisis did not originate within the Wike faction, but was sparked by former Jigawa governor Sule Lamido, who protested what he described as attempts to restrict access to nomination forms ahead of the Ibadan convention.

n

Political analysts say the broader implications of the PDP's crisis could be significant, as if the opposition remains trapped in internal disputes and legal battles, the biggest beneficiary could be President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

n

The party that once posed the most serious national challenge may now enter the next election cycle without a sitting governor or its political structures in their respective states, giving the ruling party a quiet advantage.

n

Commenting on the shrinking number of PDP governors, Gbenga Giwa said the party's constant legal battles make it unattractive to politicians seeking stability, noting that it's only Seyi Makinde and Bala Mohammed, who cannot seek reelection, that remain as governors in PDP.

n

Leo Gratias reflected on the party's emergency consultations after the ruling, saying the moment could still become an opportunity for rebuilding, as the gathering of Governor Makinde, Governor Bala Mohammed, and ex-Chairman Umar Damagum signals the party's urgent push for unity and strategic rebuilding ahead of 2027.

n

Aminu Adamu offered encouragement to the governors, framing the moment as a test of political conviction, saying they should continue to be resilient, as the test of time really shows those who are genuinely for the cause and have integrity.

n

As the sun begins to drop behind the hills around Mpape, people start preparing to break the Ramadan fast, and Samaila finally closes the phone he has been repairing, saying, "Everything now depends on those two governors," and warning that if they leave, "then the story of that party is finished."