Implications of the 31st Conference of the Parties for Nigeria

The 31st edition of the Committee of Parties, COP-31, conference on climate change, convened by the United Nations, is set to take place in the historic Turkish city of Antalya from November 9 to 20, 2026, bringing together delegates from around the world.

n

Climate change conferences consistently draw large numbers of delegates from member nations of the UN, with the COP-30 conference in Belem, Brazil, last year, seeing Nigeria send a delegation of 749, comprising 423 government officials, rivalling China's 789 delegates.

n

Nigeria's delegation size, however, overshadows the country's lack of progress in addressing environmental issues, with domestic climate action falling short of expectations, undermining demands for grants and concessional funding.

n

The country has set a target of 29 per cent unconditional emissions reduction by 2030, but by 2022, emissions had already risen by over 35 per cent above 2010 levels, with projections indicating a further increase of 61-71 per cent by 2030 if current trends continue.

n

Gas flaring remains a persistent issue, with 203.9 billion scf flared in 2025, accounting for 7.54 per cent of total production, despite a pledge to phase out the practice by 2030.

n

Deforestation also continues to pose a significant threat, with an estimated four million hectares of land lost annually, threatening mangroves and accelerating land degradation, while the country's renewables targets remain unmet.

n

The goal of achieving 23 per cent renewable energy in electricity by 2025 has not been met, with solar energy currently standing at just 1.19 GW cumulative, mostly off-grid, against a total grid capacity of 13.6 GW.

n

Institutional issues, including fragmentation, fiscal constraints, and weak monitoring, have hindered the implementation of climate policies, despite the existence of laws such as the Climate Change Act.

n

At COP-31, Nigeria is expected to seek $20-25 billion in funding by 2030, as part of the global goal of $1.3 trillion, as well as direct access for state governments to climate funds.

n

However, the lack of bankable projects in renewables, grid upgrades, or methane capture may limit the country's access to the $2 billion National Climate Fund, NCF, with financiers viewing oil expansions as incompatible with climate goals.

n

Progress on the Energy Transition Plan, including initiatives such as solar mini-grids and flare reduction for carbon markets, has been slow, with rising emissions and unmet targets undermining the country's climate efforts.

n

Enforcement of methane regulations, including mandatory leak detection and gas capture, is seen as a key solution to Nigeria's climate challenges, with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, NUPRC, expected to play a crucial role in imposing applicable fines.

n

Gas flaring must be reduced by at least 95 per cent by 2050 to generate carbon credits, while the country must also boost its renewables deployment, including subsidising on-grid solar to achieve a target of 36 per cent by 2030.

n

Intensified reforestation and logging monitoring efforts are also necessary, along with the recharging of the national tree-planting initiative, using satellite tracking to halve deforestation and protect the country's 309 mangrove species.

n

Institutional reforms and proper funding of environment sector institutions are also essential to addressing Nigeria's climate challenges and ensuring the country can benefit from the global climate fund.

n

To achieve this, Nigeria must attend COP-31 with credible evidence of the results achieved so far, demonstrating the country's commitment to addressing its climate challenges and unlocking access to global climate funding.