Future health crises may surpass coronavirus in severity

A decade after the Ebola outbreak highlighted significant flaws in global health systems, and six years after COVID-19 brought economies to a standstill and overwhelmed healthcare services worldwide, global health experts are now warning that the world is more susceptible to another devastating pandemic.

n

The Global Preparedness Monitoring Board, GPMB, issued this warning in a new report titled “A World on the Edge: Priorities for a Pandemic-Resilient Future”, which was launched on the sidelines of the 79th World Health Assembly.

n

This report presents a dire picture of a world grappling with increasingly frequent and destructive disease outbreaks, while global preparedness efforts struggle to keep pace with emerging threats.

n

According to the Board, rising geopolitical tensions, ecological disruption, rapid international travel, and shrinking development assistance have created ideal conditions for future pandemics to spread rapidly and cause widespread health, economic, and social damage.

n

The report cautions that “the world is not safer from pandemics”, emphasizing that the next major outbreak could have a devastating impact on societies already weakened by debt, political instability, fragile healthcare systems, and declining public trust.

n

The Board reviewed major Public Health Emergencies of International Concern over the past decade, including Ebola, COVID-19, and mpox, and found that the world is regressing in critical areas such as equitable access to vaccines, diagnostics, and treatments.

n

Notably, mpox vaccines took almost two years to reach many low-income countries after the outbreak began, which is even slower than the delayed rollout of COVID-19 vaccines during the global pandemic.

n

Beyond the human toll and economic losses, recent outbreaks have also eroded democratic institutions, undermined civil liberties, and deepened distrust in governments and scientific institutions.

n

The report warns that misinformation, politicized responses, and attacks on science during Ebola and COVID-19 have left many societies more divided and less resilient in the face of future health emergencies.

n

GPMB Co-Chair, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, stated that the world already possesses the necessary tools to prevent another catastrophe, but lacks the political will and global solidarity required to protect vulnerable populations.

n

“The world does not lack solutions”, she said, “but without trust and equity, those solutions will not reach the people who need them most.

n

GPMB Co-Chair, Joy Phumaphi, also warned that growing global divisions could make future pandemics even more devastating, saying “if trust and cooperation continue to fracture, every country will be more exposed when the next pandemic strikes”.

n

Phumaphi emphasized that “preparedness is not only a technical challenge, it is a test of political leadership”.

n

The Board identified three urgent priorities for governments worldwide, including establishing an independent global mechanism to monitor pandemic risks, guaranteeing equitable access to vaccines and treatments through the proposed WHO Pandemic Agreement, and securing sustainable financing for preparedness and emergency response.

n

While acknowledging the growing role of artificial intelligence and digital technologies in detecting and monitoring disease outbreaks, the report warned that weak governance and unequal access to such technologies could exacerbate global health inequalities and undermine pandemic response efforts.

n

The report concluded that decisions currently being negotiated around the WHO Pandemic Agreement and a proposed United Nations declaration on pandemic preparedness could determine whether the world is better protected against future outbreaks or left dangerously exposed once again.