Easter weekend: Investors maintain upbeat tone, markets proceed with guarded optimism

The Nigerian stock market exhibited a cautious tone last week, even as the ongoing rally persisted, with investors sustaining their buying momentum and driving capital appreciation to over N837 billion on the Nigerian Exchange Limited, NGX.

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The NGX market capitalisation rose to N129.806 trillion from N128.806 trillion the previous week, representing a notable increase in the total value of stocks listed on the Exchange.

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The NGX All Share Index, ASI, also appreciated by 0.4% Week on Week, WoW, to settle at 201,698.89 points from 200914.06 points, reflecting a modest gain in the market's overall performance.

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The market's performance was buoyed by bargain hunting in prominent stocks such as MTN, which gained 5.9%, GTCO 5.1%, Transcorp 4.2%, and Unilever 10.0%, as investors sought to capitalize on undervalued opportunities.

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However, market activity was subdued, with trading volume declining by 27.7% WoW and value down by 42.9% WoW, indicating a slowdown in investor participation.

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Sectoral performance was mixed, with the Banking Index rising 0.7%, while the Insurance Index declined by -4.2%, the Consumer Goods Index fell by -1.7%, and the Industrial Goods Index dropped by -0.2%.

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The Oil and Gas Index ended the week under review flat, reflecting a lack of significant movement in the sector.

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Trading activity slowed considerably during the session, reflecting the impact of the shortened trading week and a more cautious stance among investors, who were likely awaiting clearer market signals.

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On the global front, developments in the oil market continued to shape investor sentiment, with crude oil prices surging significantly to cross the $110 per barrel mark amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.

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Brent crude advanced by $7.96, representing a 7.9% increase to settle at $109.12 per barrel, driven by fears of prolonged supply disruptions and potential constraints in key supply routes.

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According to analysts, the rally in oil prices is being driven by concerns over potential supply shocks and the absence of clear signals pointing to de-escalation, which have heightened market anxiety and reinforced bullish sentiment in the oil market.

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For Nigeria, higher oil prices present a mixed outlook, supportive of fiscal revenues but also posing inflationary risks that could influence monetary policy and overall economic stability.

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Analysts at Cordros Capital expect the market to trade with a cautious bias, with selective positioning likely to persist as investors begin to position ahead of first quarter 2026, Q1’26 earnings, and bargain hunting may emerge in beaten-down names.

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Additionally, recent corporate actions and dividend announcements are expected to sustain interest, particularly within the banking sector, according to Cordros Capital analysts.

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Analysts at InvestData Consulting Limited also expect the market to trade within a narrow range in the short term, with a slight bullish bias supported by sector rotation and bargain hunting, as elevated oil prices could sustain interest in energy-related stocks.

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However, banking and consumer goods stocks may continue to see mixed sentiment due to profit-taking and valuation concerns, while global uncertainties, particularly around geopolitics and inflation, are likely to keep investors cautious, according to InvestData Consulting Limited analysts.