China does not plan to invade Taiwan in 2027 – US intel report

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China, Taiwan, and USA

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China does not currently plan to invade Taiwan in 2027 but seeks to take control of the self-ruled island without force, said an annual US intelligence report, which drew ire from Beijing on Thursday.

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China claims Taiwan is part of its territory and has threatened to use force to seize the island, stepping up military pressure and drills in recent years.

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The intelligence community “assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification,” said its Annual Threat Assessment report on Wednesday.

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China’s foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian responded Thursday that “the Taiwan issue is China’s internal affair” and urged the United States to “speak and act cautiously” on island.

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“The US should… correct their understanding of China, and stop hyping up the China threat theory,” he told a press conference, in response to a question about the report.

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Last year US officials at the Department of Defense had flagged 2027 as a possible timeline for an attack.

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But the intelligence community has now offered a more measured analysis of the situation.

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“In 2026, Beijing probably will continue seeking to set the conditions for eventual unification with Taiwan short of conflict,” the report said.

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But it cautioned that Chinese officials recognize that an amphibious invasion of Taiwan “would be extremely challenging and carry a high risk of failure, especially in the event of US intervention.”

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The report’s authors said China publicly insists “unification with Taiwan is required to achieve its goal of ‘national rejuvenation’ by 2049”, a much longer potential timeline to achieve its goals.

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Beijing would consider a range of factors in any decision to invade Taiwan, it said, including its military readiness, the island’s politics and whether or not Washington would intervene on Taiwan’s behalf.

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Washington does not officially recognize Taiwan, but is the island territory’s main military backer — although the tone of that support has softened slightly under US President Donald Trump.

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