Can Tinubu be Nigeria's rescue hero? Many sincerely believe he is, says Olu Fasan

Olu Fasan found himself in a heated discussion two weeks ago, when he attended a friend's daughter's wedding in London and met some old Nigerian friends, who challenged his critical views of President Bola Tinubu.

n

These friends, who are all Yoruba, insisted that Tinubu is doing a great job and is Nigeria's "saviour", and that his removal of the fuel subsidy and scrapping of the fixed exchange rates are examples of his "great things".

n

They claimed that only the Hausa/Fulani and the Igbos dislike Tinubu, due to his policies hurting the Northern elite and his "sensible" decentralisation agenda, as well as his "meritocratic" Yoruba-dominated appointments.

n

The Igbos, they said, are mostly "Obidients", supporters of Peter Obi, Tinubu's arch-rival, and therefore naturally oppose Tinubu.

n

This was not the first time Fasan had heard Yoruba elite defend President Tinubu, and he noted that they often blame Nigeria's challenges on Tinubu's political enemies.

n

When asked about poverty, they would say it's not Tinubu's problem, but rather the responsibility of state governments, which have received savings from the subsidy removal and are now awash with money.

n

Regarding insecurity, they would echo Pastor Adeboye's statement that "Tinubu has done his bit" and that the blame lies with his enemies, rather than the president himself.

n

Fasan wondered if the Yoruba would be so generous with a non-Yoruba president, and noted that recent history shows they were highly critical of Presidents Goodluck Jonathan and Muhammadu Buhari.

n

The Yoruba were vocal in their criticism of these presidents, but under Tinubu, they harbour no scepticism, which Fasan finds intriguing.

n

The Yoruba elite's view that Tinubu is Nigeria's saviour is based on his reforms since taking power in 2023, including the withdrawal of the fuel subsidy and the introduction of the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND).

n

Other reforms include the push for local government financial autonomy, tax reform, and the commencement of legislative processes for the creation of state police, which, at face value, seem impressive.

n

However, Fasan questions whether these reforms will truly turn Nigeria around, tackle poverty, and guarantee security and prosperity.

n

He notes that any reform that doesn't generate prosperity and improve living standards is a failed reform, and that Tinubu's reforms are hardly transformative.

n

Fasan points out that Tinubu's credibility is questionable, given his past opposition to the fuel subsidy removal, which he now champions as a great reform.

n

Tinubu's decision to remove the fuel subsidy and scrap the fixed exchange rate was twelve and eight years too late, respectively, and has had unintended consequences such as deepening poverty and massive naira devaluation.

n

The NELFUND, while a good idea, is beset by maladministration and corruption, and the local government "autonomy" has not been implemented due to conflicts between state and local governments.

n

The push for state police is also misguided, as it won't end insecurity in Nigeria, and only a holistic restructuring of the country along regional lines can guarantee security and prosperity.

n

The tax reform, while thoughtful and well-designed, is unlikely to increase revenue mobilisation in a largely unproductive economy, where the informal sector accounts for nearly 90 per cent.

n

Nigeria's challenge is not high debt, but low revenue, and the government's recent borrowing and plans for a Eurobond issuance will only increase foreign debt.

n

While Tinubu has shown a reforming zeal, his reforms are not transformative or seismic enough to make him Nigeria's saviour, and the country's economy remains unstable and unproductive.