Beyond the Shadows of 1993: Law, evidence and the sovereign will

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By Echeta Babington Onuh

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Human existence has always been accompanied by disagreement and controversy. Wherever people hold different views about what is right or wrong, just or unjust, desirable or dangerous, controversy is likely to emerge. It may arise from competing political convictions, different interpretations of historical events, conflicting values or incomplete information.

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In this sense, controversy is not necessarily a defect in human affairs. It can be a natural consequence of society’s capacity to question, investigate and reinterpret events

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The difficulty begins when a disputed matter gradually acquires the status of settled fact without sufficient evidence to support that transition. Where information is incomplete, people naturally seek explanations. A question may lead to speculation, speculation may generate competing accounts, and repeated accounts may eventually become widely accepted, even where the underlying evidence remains contested.

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This provides a useful framework for considering the continuing public discussion surrounding President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the 1993 United States civil forfeiture proceedings.

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More than three decades after the proceedings, the subject continues to feature in Nigerian political discourse. Renewed interest in historical U.S. records has also brought the matter back into public discussion.

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The important question, however, is not simply what different political actors believe about the episode. It is what the available records and applicable law actually establish.

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That requires allowing the law to speak in its own terms. The 1993 U.S. proceeding was a civil forfeiture matter concerning property. Civil forfeiture and criminal prosecution are distinct legal processes. An in rem proceeding is directed at property rather than constituting a conventional criminal prosecution of an individual.

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Accordingly, the civil forfeiture proceeding should not be described as a criminal conviction of Tinubu

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The proceeding did not result in a criminal trial and conviction of him for an offence arising from that particular civil action. The matter was ultimately resolved through a settlement.

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A settlement, standing alone, should also not automatically be characterised as an admission of criminal liability.

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This distinction does not mean that historical questions should not be examined. Public officials, particularly those who occupy important constitutional offices, remain subject to legitimate public scrutiny. Nor does the absence of a criminal conviction mean that every historical question surrounding an event has necessarily been answered.

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It is reasonable to ask what happened, what the available records contain, why particular financial arrangements existed and whether additional information can provide greater clarity.

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The important principle is that questions should remain questions until the evidence supports a definitive conclusion.

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The Nigerian judiciary also considered aspects of the issue during litigation arising from the 2023 presidential election. The Presidential Election Petition Court and subsequently the Supreme Court considered arguments concerning the relevance of the historical foreign proceedings to the constitutional requirements for presidential eligibility

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The courts did not treat the 1993 civil proceedings as a criminal conviction within the meaning of Section 137(1)(d) of the Nigerian Constitution.

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Whatever differing political interpretations may continue to surround the historical episode, its legal relevance in the context of the 2023 presidential election was therefore considered by Nigeria’s highest judicial authorities.

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Yet the public discussion continues.

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This persistence illustrates an important distinction between historical controversy and established fact. The existence of a civil proceeding is a matter that can be documented.

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The legal character of that proceeding can also be established. Questions about its wider historical significance, however, may continue to attract different interpretations.

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Subsequent political or diplomatic developments should likewise be considered carefully. They may provide context, but they should not be presented as definitive proof of any particular conclusion about events that occurred decades earlier.

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The appropriate response is therefore neither to dismiss legitimate questions nor to reach conclusions beyond what the evidence supports. It is to examine the available information carefully and distinguish clearly between documented facts, legal findings, interpretation and opinion.

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This is where the issue becomes particularly important.

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There is a significant difference between stating that an individual was connected to a civil proceeding, stating that a matter was examined by authorities, describing claims made in historical records and asserting that an individual was criminally convicted.

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These are not interchangeable propositions.

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Political discussion can sometimes compress complex legal and historical matters into simple statements. Once that happens, important distinctions may be lost. A document may be circulated without the circumstances surrounding it, while a brief description of a legal proceeding may be presented without explaining the nature of the proceeding itself.

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The result can be a public discussion in which different categories of information become difficult to distinguish.

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This is not unique to Nigeria. In many political systems, historical controversies can resurface during periods of intense political competition. Matters from decades earlier may acquire renewed relevance because political actors, journalists, commentators and members of the public revisit the records and attach different meanings to them.

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The digital environment has made this process even more pronounced. Historical documents can circulate widely within minutes, while the legal and historical context necessary to understand them may receive considerably less attention.

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For that reason, public discussion requires restraint.

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It is possible to scrutinise a public official without prejudging the outcome of an inquiry. It is equally possible to defend due process without taking a predetermined position on every aspect of a historical controversy.

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A responsible approach is to recognise the difference between established facts and matters that remain subject to interpretation or further examination.

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The same principle should apply to assessments of political leaders generally.

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No political career can be adequately understood through one historical episode alone. Political lives are usually shaped by many events, decisions, relationships, successes, setbacks and public debates.

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Tinubu’s political history has generated differing assessments. Supporters point to his role in Nigeria’s democratic development, his political career and his administration of Lagos as important parts of his public record. Other Nigerians have expressed differing assessments of his political decisions and record.

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Those perspectives form part of democratic debate.

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The existence of disagreement does not, however, establish the accuracy of either side’s interpretation. Serious public discourse requires evidence and allows competing claims to be examined on their merits.

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There is also a broader democratic question.

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The Nigerian electorate entered the 2023 presidential election after extensive public debate about the major candidates, including discussions concerning their backgrounds and records. These debates formed part of the environment in which voters made their choices.

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The electorate ultimately elected Tinubu.

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An electoral mandate is not a judicial determination on every historical question, nor does an election make any public official beyond criticism. Elections cannot independently resolve every factual dispute. At the same time, the decision of voters remains an important expression of democratic choice.

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Democracy requires both accountability and respect for the electorate’s constitutional role.

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Citizens can question political decisions, investigate historical records and demand greater transparency while recognising that electoral choices are ultimately made by voters through the democratic process.

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The responsibility of democratic citizenship also includes intellectual openness.

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If credible evidence provides new information about a historical matter, that information should be examined. If a claim is contradicted by reliable records, that should equally inform public discussion. Where evidence remains incomplete, it is appropriate to acknowledge that uncertainty.

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The guiding principle should be simple: evidence should precede conclusion.

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The continuing discussion surrounding the 1993 proceedings therefore offers a broader lesson about how societies remember history.

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Historical memory is rarely completely neutral. Political communities remember some events more prominently than others, and certain episodes may remain prominent because they continue to feature in contemporary public debate.

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That does not make historical inquiry unnecessary.

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On the contrary, history should be examined carefully. Where records can lawfully be made available, they can contribute to a fuller understanding of the past. Public institutions should respond appropriately to legitimate questions, while historical claims should be assessed according to reliable evidence.

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The purpose of examining the past should be to improve understanding, not simply to confirm an existing position.

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This is why renewed attention to 1993 should be approached with seriousness and proportion. There is nothing inherently inappropriate about examining historical records or asking questions concerning the background of a political leader.

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What requires caution is the assumption that the existence of a historical controversy, by itself, establishes the answer to the questions arising from it.

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A controversy can justify further examination. It does not, on its own, constitute a final determination of fact.

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Ultimately, the broader issue is what the controversy teaches about public discourse.

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It demonstrates the importance of distinguishing between records and interpretations, between legal findings and political commentary, and between established facts and matters that remain under discussion.

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It also demonstrates the value of intellectual humility in public life.

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Nigeria needs a political culture in which public officials can be scrutinised while historical and legal claims are subjected to appropriate evidentiary standards. Difficult questions should be allowed to be asked, but conclusions should remain proportionate to the information available.

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The country also faces pressing contemporary challenges involving economic opportunity, institutional capacity, security, infrastructure, education, employment and governance.

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These challenges do not make history irrelevant. Rather, they reinforce the importance of approaching history accurately so that public debate can remain focused on facts and lessons rather than assumptions.

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A society cannot build its future by ignoring its past. Equally, it cannot make sound decisions about the future if historical questions are discussed without adequate attention to evidence and context.

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Perhaps, then, the shadows of 1993 will remain part of Nigeria’s political conversation. That is not necessarily undesirable. History deserves to be remembered, records deserve to be examined and legitimate questions deserve to be asked.

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But historical controversy should not become a substitute for evidence.

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The law must distinguish between a civil proceeding and a criminal conviction. Public discussion must distinguish between documented facts and interpretation. Political debate must allow room for scrutiny as well as uncertainty. And citizens must retain their right to make informed democratic judgments.

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In the final analysis, controversy is not necessarily a threat to democracy. What matters is how society responds to it.

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A healthy democracy does not fear difficult questions. It encourages questions to be examined carefully, records to be considered fairly and conclusions to follow the evidence.

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Written by EchetaBabington Onuh, PhD, a public affairs commentator [email protected]

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