Azu Ishiekwene: ADC's Main Obstacle is Itself, Not the APC

The African Democratic Congress, ADC, is facing a harsh reality that it cannot ignore, despite its attempts to turn a blind eye to the facts. The party's troubles began with its delayed registration, which led to accusations that the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, was intentionally stalling the process.

The ADC was eventually registered in June, but this did not put an end to the party's woes, as it continued to clash with the APC over issues such as coercion and bribery of defecting governors. The ADC argued that these tactics would not save the APC from a poor voter verdict in the next election due to its lackluster record.

The ADC's latest concern is that the APC is planning to destabilize the party by installing a leader who will weaken and factionalize it, using the same playbook it employed against the Labour Party and the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. The party claims that the APC intends to use the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, to recognize an expelled member, Nafiu Bala Gombe, as the ADC national chairman.

This alleged plan is supposedly aimed at ensuring that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu emerges unopposed as the only serious candidate on the ballot in 2027. The ADC's penchant for conspiracy theories may ultimately prove to be its own downfall, as the party's internal issues and lack of cohesion may destroy it before the APC can.

Power is not given, but rather taken through planning, organization, and action, a fact that the ADC seems to have overlooked in its pursuit of power. The party was not built to last, but rather as a coalition of disgruntled individuals seeking power after damaging and abandoning the PDP.

The ADC's focus on the presidential ambitions of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rotimi Amaechi has overshadowed the party's core principles and values, with more attention being paid to securing the presidential ticket for one of these individuals than to building the party itself.

A recent spat between octogenarian political stalwarts Odigie Oyegun and Rowland Owie in Benin, Edo State, over support for Amaechi or Atiku, highlights the party's internal divisions and lack of direction. The ADC's priorities seem to be misplaced, with defection and personal interests taking precedence over party building and ideology.

The history of political parties in Nigeria's Fourth Republic is marked by a concerning trend of decline and instability. Between 1999 and 2015, the PDP was at its peak, with President Olusegun Obasanjo winning the presidential election with 62.78 percent of the vote and the party controlling 21 of 36 states.

However, in less than 27 years, the PDP has become a shadow of its former self, with many of its members defecting to other parties. The question of what happened to the PDP is often answered by blaming external factors, such as the APC and its leader, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, rather than acknowledging the party's internal weaknesses and failures.

After the 2023 general elections, the PDP had won 10 governorship seats, with the 11th being Bayelsa in the off-cycle elections, which could have provided a foundation for the party to rebuild and challenge the APC. However, the PDP has since lost many of its traditional strongholds in the South-South, South-East, and North-Central to defections.

Only two governors, Bala Mohammed of Bauchi and Seyi Makinde of Oyo, remain in the PDP faction, with rumors suggesting that even they may soon defect to other parties. The PDP's decline is a result of its own actions, including the lack of consequences for defectors and the prioritization of personal interests over party loyalty.

The current state of the opposition in Nigeria points to a likely victory for the APC in the next general elections, not due to the party's performance, but rather because the opposition, particularly the ADC, has failed to provide a viable alternative. The ADC's claim to be an opposition party is almost laughable, given its internal divisions and lack of direction.

In the end, the biggest opposition to the APC will come from within the party itself, as history has shown that ruling parties eventually decay and decline due to internal fragmentation, corruption, and loss of moral authority. The APC's fate will be no different, despite the noise being made by the ADC.