2027 outlook: Tinubu faces challenges in Southern states, remains strong contender in North Central and North East; Atiku lacks support in Southern region; Obi's 2023 surge has dissipated.

As the political landscape continues to evolve ahead of the 2027 general elections, Prof. Femi Otubanjo, Director of Research at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, has weighed in on the emergence of presidential candidates and the shifting alliances that are shaping the battle for the top seat.

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According to Otubanjo, recent developments in Rivers State may have dealt a significant blow to President Bola Tinubu's ambitions in the South-South, with the sidelining of Governor Siminalayi Fubara potentially alienating Ijaw voters across the region and weakening the APC's electoral calculations.

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Otubanjo argues that the treatment of Fubara is a strategic misstep, as it undermines Tinubu's ability to win in Rivers State and beyond, with the Ijaw people making up a significant majority in the state and numbering around 8 to 14 million across the South-South.

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By removing Fubara from the equation, Otubanjo contends that Wike is pursuing his own agenda, rather than supporting Tinubu, and that this move is likely to benefit Wike at Tinubu's expense, potentially costing Tinubu crucial votes in the South-South.

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Otubanjo likens the situation to "shooting oneself in the foot," noting that Tinubu had made significant gains in the South-South, but is now at risk of losing that advantage due to the handling of Fubara's situation.

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Fubara's potential move to the NDC could also pose risks, as he may face impeachment proceedings due to the presence of Wike's legislators, which could diminish his chances of winning.

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Looking beyond Rivers State, Otubanjo turns his attention to the broader 2027 picture, including Atiku Abubakar's emergence as a presidential candidate in the ADC, which he describes as a "self-fulfilling prophecy" given the party's status as a "special purpose vehicle" for Atiku's candidacy.

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Otubanjo reveals that Atiku had previously considered starting his own party ahead of the 2019 elections, but ultimately secured the PDP nomination, and notes that the ADC is essentially a vehicle for Atiku's ambitions.

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He likens Nigerian politics to the English football system, with Tinubu and Atiku occupying the "Premier League" tier, while others, such as Kwankwaso and Obi, are relegated to the "Championship" level, and Amaechi is struggling to compete in "League One".

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Otubanjo expresses surprise at Amaechi's decision to vie for the presidency, given his lack of structure and experience as a politician, and notes that Atiku's victory in the ADC primary was all but certain.

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Atiku's prospects in the South are limited, with no prominent ADC members from the region, and Otubanjo suggests that Amaechi's potential selection as a running mate may not be a significant asset, despite being the best available option.

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Otubanjo's reading of the 2027 race suggests that the dynamics currently favor President Tinubu, who has created a political party, contested elections, and built a significant support base over the past 26 years.

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Tinubu's experience and incumbency, which Otubanjo terms "creative, positive incumbency," give him an advantage, with 31 APC governors and key supporters like Soludo and Adeleke backing him.

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The odds favor Tinubu, particularly in the North-Central region, where he is expected to win hands down, and in the North-East, where he will be competitive due to the presence of VP Shettima.

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However, Otubanjo cautions that the situation can change rapidly, citing Harold Wilson's adage that "a week is a long time in politics," and noting that anything can happen between now and the 2027 elections.