2027: Kwara North may emerge largest voting bloc — KMC

By Demola Akinyemi, Ilorin

A pro-democracy group in Kwara State, Kwara Must Change (KMC), has projected that Kwara North Senatorial District could emerge as the largest voting bloc in the state by the 2027 general elections, potentially surpassing Kwara Central for the first time.

In a statement issued in Ilorin by its Convener, Abdulrazaq Hamzat, the group noted a steady decline in Kwara Central’s share of the statewide vote—from 52 per cent in 1999 to about 39 per cent in 2023—representing a 13-point drop in its long-standing dominance.

By contrast, Kwara North’s share rose from 24 per cent in 1999 to 36 per cent in 2023, marking a 12-point increase over the same period.

Hamzat observed that while Kwara North and Kwara South had similar vote shares in 1999, the North has since pulled ahead by more than 12 percentage points, reinforcing its growing influence in the state’s electoral landscape.

He described the trend as significant, noting that Kwara North began as the smallest voting bloc but has steadily grown through improved grassroots organisation, increased voter engagement, and rising political awareness, particularly in its rural and semi-urban communities.

Kwara South, he added, has remained relatively stable, maintaining between 24 and 26 per cent of the vote, and continues to play a swing role in statewide elections.

The statement further noted that the 2023 elections narrowed the gap between Kwara Central and Kwara North to just four percentage points—the closest margin in decades—signalling a shift in the state’s political balance.

Hamzat attributed the development to demographic changes, sustained voter mobilisation, and evolving political behaviour, which have enabled Kwara North to expand its influence, drawing support largely from Kwara Central and, to a lesser extent, Kwara South between 2015 and 2023.

Within this period, Kwara North is estimated to have gained about four percentage points from Central and two points from South, consolidating its position across its five local government areas—Baruten, Edu, Kaiama, Moro, and Patigi.

Looking ahead, KMC projected that Kwara North could secure between 38 and 39 per cent of the total votes in 2027, while Kwara Central may decline to between 37 and 38 per cent, potentially marking a historic shift in the state’s political structure.

The group noted that even a modest continuation of the current growth rate—about two percentage points per election cycle—could overturn the existing balance.

Hamzat said such a shift would reflect a transition from population-driven dominance to performance-driven mobilisation, where organisation, advocacy, and voter turnout play more decisive roles.

He, however, warned that insecurity in parts of Kwara North could hinder voter mobilisation if not properly addressed.

“This projection should serve as a call to action for all senatorial districts to intensify voter sensitisation, registration, and participation,” he said.

KMC added that its projections are based on historical voting patterns, field engagement, and trend analysis, noting that the rising momentum in Kwara North could reshape the state’s electoral dynamics and influence future political alignments, representation, and power distribution.