2027: Governors Brace for Intense Re-Election Fights, Scramble to Groom Replacement Candidates

As the 2027 governorship elections approach, intense battles are unfolding across 28 states in Nigeria, with outgoing governors fighting to install their successors and first-term governors, except for Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers State, struggling to retain their seats.

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Seven states will not participate in the elections due to their off-cycle governorship polls, while Fubara did not receive a re-election ticket, setting the stage for a highly consequential election in Nigeria.

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The upcoming elections will be shaped by factors such as incumbency, ethnic zoning, insecurity, economic hardship, and the influence of godfathers, making them a complex and unpredictable contest.

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In the 18 northern states, the battle for control of government houses has begun, with parties fielding their candidates and godfathers taking sides, leading to a multifaceted struggle.

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Kaduna State is expected to be a key battleground, with three formidable candidates, including Governor Uba Sani of the APC, Shehu Usman Bawa of the PDP, and Isa Ashiru of the ADC, engaged in a genuine three-way contest.

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Sani's incumbency and the APC's state machinery give him an advantage, but Ashiru's alliance with former Governor Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai could pose a significant challenge to the incumbent.

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In Kano State, Governor Abba Yusuf faces a tough battle due to his recent defection from the NNPP to the APC, which has led to his estrangement from political godfather Dr. Musa Kwankwaso.

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The PDP has fielded Dr. Muhammad Bello Dalha, while Sheikh Ibrahim Khalil will fly the ADC flag, and former Deputy Governor Gwarzo is expected to inherit the Kwankwasiyya support base.

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Benue, Taraba, and Adamawa States are also expected to be competitive, with incumbent governors facing stiff resistance from opposition candidates and factional disputes within parties.

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In Benue, Governor Rev. Fr. Hyacinth Alia faces a challenge from former Attorney General of the Federation Chief Michael Aondoakaa, while in Taraba, Governor Agbu Kefas will face Senator Emmanuel Bwacha, his 2023 primary rival.

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Adamawa State is seen as a free-for-all, with the APC banking on PTDF's former Executive Secretary Ahmed Tijjani Galadima, and the PDP fielding technocrat Dr. Maurice Vonolboki, who recently returned to the party.

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Borno and Yobe States remain the North's most impenetrable APC strongholds, with no opposition party having won the governorship in either state since the return of democracy in 1999.

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Plateau, Zamfara, and Bauchi States are considered wild cards, with Governor Caleb Mutfwang of Plateau facing a challenge from PDP's Kefas Wungak Ropshik, and Zamfara's Governor Dauda Lawal facing NDC's Senator Kabiru Marafa.

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Bauchi State is the North's most unpredictable theatre, with Governor Bala Mohammed's defection from the PDP to the APC scrambling the chessboard and creating an opportunity for Senator Shehu Buba Umar, who has defected to the PRP.

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Across Niger, Sokoto, Kebbi, Nasarawa, Kwara, Katsina, and Jigawa States, the broad pattern favors sitting governors or their preferred successors, with some exceptions, such as Kwara, where the state House of Assembly Speaker Salihu Yakubu Danladi has emerged as a strong contender.

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The APC appears likely to retain at least 12 governorships in the North, but the outcomes in Kaduna, Kano, Adamawa, Bauchi, and Taraba remain uncertain, and these states will play a crucial role in shaping Nigeria's political future in the North.

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In the South, the major political parties have fielded their candidates for the governorship elections in 11 states, with the APC, PDP, and other parties engaging in a complex and multifaceted battle.

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Lagos State is expected to be a key battleground, with the APC's Deputy Governor Dr. Obafemi Hamzat, also known as KOH, emerging as the party's candidate, while the Social Democratic Party has fielded Femi Olaniyi, and the PDP has settled on Deji Doherty.

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The ADC has fielded Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, who won the party's primary with 12,948 votes, defeating Owolabi Salis, and is seen as a potent opposition wildcard.

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In Oyo State, Governor Seyi Makinde's political shadow looms large, with the PDP's preferred successor being Bimbo Adekanmbi, a former Commissioner for Finance, who enjoys the backing of the party and the Allied Peoples Movement.

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The APC is not conceding without a fight, with Senator Sharafadeen Alli and former CBN Deputy Governor Adebayo Adelabu locked in internal jostling for the party's soul, while the ADC has fielded Chief Taofeek Adegoke, a prominent Ibadan businessman.

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Abia State is seen as a one-horse race, with Governor Alex Otti's administration enjoying rare cross-party goodwill and an unbroken tradition of re-electing sitting governors, making him the heavy favorite to win.

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The APC has produced Chief Eric Opiah, a businessman from the Ngwa axis of Abia Central, who carries federal backing and financial muscle, but the Abia APC is a fractured vessel, with former Minister Henry Ikoh challenging Opiah's emergence.

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In Enugu State, Governor Peter Mbah of the APC has secured his party's governorship ticket by consensus, but the PDP is embroiled in a civil war, with two factions producing separate candidates, Chief Uche Nnaji and Hon. Dona Nwogbo.

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A third claimant, Chief Samson Nnamani, has counter-suspended his opponents and declared himself the rightful candidate, creating a complex and uncertain situation for the PDP.